Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of propylene remains at a high level, with stable and rising upstream operations. There is a short - term lack of obvious PDH loss - induced maintenance, but some PDH units are expected to be maintained in January, which may lead to a temporary shortage in the propylene market supply. The market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [4]. - Downstream device planned maintenance is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [4]. - The recent trend of international oil prices is weak, but geopolitical tensions are rising, which may increase oil - price fluctuations. Saudi Aramco has announced that the official CP price for January is $525/ton, a month - on - month increase of $30/ton, exceeding market expectations. The price of propane in the external market is expected to rise significantly, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. The market should pay attention to cost - side changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, cost - side support has increased, but supply - demand drivers are limited, and the market may fluctuate within a range. Wait for the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance. For inter - period trading, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high. There is no suggestion for cross - variety trading [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Strategy Analysis - The basis of propylene in the mainstream Shandong region against the PL2603 contract fluctuated widely in December. The basis strengthened in the early stage due to the divergence between the spot and futures trends of propylene, with the futures price continuously falling due to weak supply - demand expectations. The weakening of the basis in the later stage was mainly due to the boost in market sentiment and the recovery of cost - side support, which led to a rebound in the futures price and a structure where the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis in East China also fluctuated widely between 50 and 300 [11]. - There is a strong expectation of PDH device maintenance in the first quarter, and the price of propane on the cost side is rising. In the short term, the basis may continue to fluctuate weakly. The basis is expected to be mainly weakly fluctuating, and for the inter - period spread, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high [11]. II. Propylene Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - period Spread No specific summary information other than the data sources and chart titles is provided in the given text. III. Propylene Supply - As of December 2025, China's monthly propylene production was 5.4575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.33%. The propylene operating rate was 75.00% (+0.89%), among which the operating rate of PDH - produced propylene was 76.36% (+1.36%), the operating rate of methanol - to - propylene was 87.81% (-0.51%), and the operating rate of major refineries was 75.11% (+0.00) [1]. - The expected new production capacity of 500,000 tons of BASF in Guangdong has been realized. The production pressure in the first quarter is relatively small, but 2026 is still a domestic propylene production cycle, with an expected annual new production capacity of 7.36 million tons, and the nominal production capacity growth rate is 9.3% (the actual production capacity growth rate weighted by the production time is about 4.4%), significantly lower than the production capacity growth rate in 2025 [1]. - In terms of existing device maintenance, some PDH devices are expected to stop in January. Currently, one PDH unit of Jinneng Chemical and the PDH device of Guangxi Hongyi are under maintenance. Dongming Petrochemical and Binhuaxin Materials will gradually resume external sales after restarting. The planned maintenance volume of existing PDH devices is still small. As the CP price rises unexpectedly and compresses PDH profits, the market's expectation of PDH device maintenance has increased, and the market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [2]. IV. Propylene Import and Export - In November, the propylene import volume was 142,825 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.40%, and the export volume was 2,740 tons, a year - on - year increase of 920.97% [3]. - The increase in the propylene import volume in November compared to the previous month and the decrease compared to the same period last year were mainly due to the end of maintenance of some Korean devices in November, which increased the available supply and led to a slight month - on - month increase in the import volume [3]. V. Propylene Downstream Demand - In terms of downstream new production, a 300,000 - ton/year PO device of Lianhong was newly put into production in December. There will be less downstream production in the first quarter of 2026, and the new downstream production capacity will mainly be realized in the third and fourth quarters. The demand support from the new downstream production capacity of propylene is limited in the short term [3]. - In terms of downstream existing operations, the planned maintenance of downstream devices is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3][4]. - In December, the monthly production of PP pellets was 355,630 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%; the monthly production of PP powder was 30,780 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the monthly production of propylene oxide was 59,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.90%; the monthly production of acrylic acid was 34,280 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.75%; the monthly production of acrylonitrile was 404,166 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.43%; the monthly production of octanol was 27,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.85%; the monthly production of n - butanol was 22,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.95%; the monthly production of phenol was 48,710 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% [2]. - The weekly operating rate of PP powder was 38% (+0.69%); the weekly operating rate of propylene oxide was 74% (-2%); the weekly operating rate of acrylic acid was 79.85% (+0.43%); the weekly operating rate of acrylonitrile was 78.33% (-1.95%); the weekly operating rate of octanol was 82% (-3%); the weekly operating rate of n - butanol was 79.87% (+2.09%); the weekly operating rate of phenol - acetone was 81% (+3%) [2]. VI. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene was 46,010 tons (-550), the in - plant inventory of PP powder was 30,050 tons (-7,116), and the in - plant inventory of acrylonitrile was 61,000 tons (-500). Currently, the in - plant inventory of propylene is still higher than the same period in previous years, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory before the increase in supply - side maintenance is realized. The pressure to reduce inventory of downstream PP is also relatively large, with the inventory of PP traders at a high level in the same period and the inventory of PP powder also relatively high in the same period [3].
需求跟进有限，关注PDH装置检修兑现情况
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-04 12:12