下游开工延续走低，关注装置检修兑现情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment boost drives the polyolefin market to stop falling and rebound, but the change in the supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. - For PE, the supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited new planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand remains weak, and there is still pressure on price and inventory removal. - For PP, although there is an expectation of supply reduction and cost support, the short - term rebound depends on whether the scale of device maintenance can increase, and the price increase space is limited due to insufficient demand improvement. - Suggested strategies include short - term cautious short - selling hedging for LLDPE, waiting and seeing for PP, and specific operations for cross - period and cross - variety spread trading [3][5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L主力合约收盘价6472元/吨（+11）, PP主力合约收盘价6348元/吨（+27）. LL华北现货6300元/吨（+0）, LL华东现货6450元/吨（+50）, PP华东现货6160元/吨（+0）. LL华北基差 - 172元/吨（+9）, LL华东基差 - 72元/吨（ - 11）, PP华东基差 - 188元/吨（ - 17） [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE上月产量301万吨（+12）, LLDPE产量143万吨（+9）, PE开工率84%（+0%）; PP上月产量356万吨（+9）, PP开工率77%（ - 3%） [1]. - Production Profit: PE油制生产利润64.5元/吨（+78.3）, PP油制生产利润 - 415.5元/吨（+78.3）, PDH制PP生产利润 - 828.8元/吨（ - 35.7） [1]. - Import and Export: PE11月进口量106万吨（+5）, 11月出口量9万吨（+0）; PP11月进口量30万吨（+3）, 11月出口量26万吨（+2）. LL进口利润99.3元/吨（ - 2.5）, PP进口利润 - 351.2元/吨（+7.4）, PP出口利润 - 22.4美元/吨（ - 0.9） [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE下游农膜开工率45%（ - 5%）, PE下游包装膜开工率49%（ - 2%）, PP下游塑编开工率44%（+0%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率63%（+0%） [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Polyethylene (PE) - Price Spread: In early December, the price dropped due to supply and demand issues. In late December, it rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand contradiction remains, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - Supply: Only a new 50 - million - ton/year FDPE device of Zhanjiang BASF was put into production in December. In 2026, the new production slows down, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%. There is a new production vacuum period in Q1. The planned maintenance in January is limited, and the import window is open again, increasing supply pressure. Some devices may switch production [3]. - Import and Export: In November, the import volume was 106.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The import window reopened in December, and the expected increase in low - cost imported goods may impact domestic supply [4]. - Demand: In the off - season, the overall downstream PE开工 continues to decline. The demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak, and the demand support remains weak [4]. - Inventory: After the festival, the inventory accumulates. The inventory removal of each link in the industrial chain may slow down, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure around the Spring Festival [5]. 3.2.2 Polypropylene (PP) - Price Spread: In early December, the price dropped due to supply - demand imbalance. Near the end of the month, it rebounded, but the rebound height depends on whether the device maintenance can be realized [6]. - Supply: No new device was put into production in December. Only a 15 - million - ton external - propylene - purchasing PP device of Huizhou Lituo is expected to be put into production in Q1 2026, but there is uncertainty. The profit pressure may lead to more device maintenance [6]. - Import and Export: In November 2025, the import volume was 30.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.64%, and the export volume was 25.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.49%. The import window is not open, and the export may increase [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream开工 is weak, except for BOPP. The policy in 2026 is beneficial to demand, but the overall support is limited [7]. - Inventory: The upstream inventory pressure exists, and the inventory removal of each link is not smooth. There is still inventory removal pressure due to limited demand [7]. 3.3 Strategy - Single - side: Cautiously short - sell and hedge for LLDPE at high prices; wait and see for PP, and pay attention to device maintenance and cost disturbances [8]. - Cross - period: Do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 contract spreads at high prices [8]. - Cross - variety: Do short - selling operations for the long - term L - PP spread at high prices [8]. 3.4 Polyolefin Basis Strategy - PE Basis Strategy: The 05 contract basis of LLDPE continues to weaken. In January, the basis may fluctuate weakly in the range of - 100 to - 200. It is recommended to do reverse spreads for L05 - 09 spreads at high prices [13]. - PP Basis Strategy: The 05 contract basis of PP fluctuates weakly in the range of - 130 to - 210. The basis may continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the realization of device maintenance, and the month - spread fluctuates within a range [13].