黄金、白银期货品种周报-20260104

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks, but it may face short - term pressure and volatility. For Shanghai gold, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for the mid - line [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. The mid - to long - term upward trend is expected to continue supported by factors like falling global silver inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations, but it needs to beware of policy shifts and high volatility. A wait - and - see approach is also recommended for the mid - line [32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory (Gold Futures) 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. From late 2025 to early 2026, the gold price showed a high - level correction and then stabilized. Short - term factors led to a price drop from the high, but the mid - to long - term core logic for the rise remains unchanged. The price found support in the range of $4300 - 4350 per ounce (about 970 - 980 yuan per gram in China) and rebounded. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 was to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 1011 - 1026 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 988 - 1000 yuan per gram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for Shanghai gold contract 2604 is also to be cautiously bullish in the short - term, with an upper pressure level of 980 - 1000 yuan per gram and a lower support level of 950 - 970 yuan per gram. Buy on dips and control positions due to large short - term fluctuations [10][11]. 3.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][24]. Group 4: Summary by Directory (Silver Futures) 4.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai silver futures are in a strong upward trend and at the end of it. From late 2025 to early 2026, the silver price showed an extreme trend of soaring and then crashing, followed by a volatile stabilization. Short - term fluctuations were due to factors like margin hikes by the exchange. The mid - to long - term upward trend is supported by factors such as falling inventories, strong industrial demand, and Fed's rate - cut expectations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [32]. 4.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy for silver contract 2604 was that it ran strongly at a high level, with a lower support level of 18,000 - 18,500 yuan per kilogram, and to buy on dips while being aware of New Year's holiday risks. - This week's strategy for silver contract 2604 is that it runs at a high level, with an upper pressure level of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and a lower support level of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan per kilogram. Buy on dips and control positions due to increased short - term fluctuations [35][36]. 4.3 Related Data Situation - The report presents data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][47][49].