国泰君安期货·能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - fiber: Short - term sideways market, medium - term weakening. The current situation shows a continuation of upstream - downstream contradictions, with short - term high - level sideways trends. The actual output of short - fiber has increased, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued [3][8]. - Bottle chips: Sideways with a weakening tendency. There is also a continuation of upstream - downstream contradictions, short - term high - level sideways. The actual supply of bottle chips in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually improve from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [2][10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Short - fiber (PF) 3.1.1 This Week's View - Supply: Factory operating rates have increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mostly around the end of January [8]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. Terminal restocking increased during the low - price promotions last weekend, but overall sales were weak during the week. Short - fiber has a nominal inventory reduction but a physical inventory build - up, with the inventory index rising to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [8]. - View: The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it will be in a short - term high - level sideways trend. The short - fiber and bottle chips have followed the price increases in a timely manner, and the processing margins on the futures market have not been compressed to near the cost. Although some factories have announced production cuts, there are no unexpected developments. The actual output of short - fiber has increased, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued [8]. 3.1.2 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the processing margin on the futures market is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high [9]. - Strategy: No unilateral strategy; for inter - period trading, observe long spreads at low prices and enter when the valuation is reasonable; continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [9]. 3.2 Bottle chips (PR) 3.2.1 This Week's View - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operating rates have increased again, with new production from a 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai. Overall operating rates may start to decline in late January [10]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased month - on - month. The average operating rate of beverage factories has rebounded to around 70%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet material sectors have also increased. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons. Factories have reduced their inventories to around 13 days [10]. - View: The upstream - downstream contradictions continue, and it will be in a short - term high - level sideways trend. The supply of bottle chips in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually improve from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [10]. 3.2.2 Valuation and Strategy - Valuation: The spot processing margin is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing margin is also 400 - 450 yuan/ton, neutral [10]. - Strategy: No unilateral strategy; for inter - period trading, take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads for contracts after March; no cross - variety strategy [10]. 3.3 New Capacity and Supply - Demand Outlook - Bottle chips in 2026: The planned new capacity is relatively small, with only a 400,000 - ton device of Kesen and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total capacity increase of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The profit trend is expected to recover [11]. - Short - fiber in 2026: The capacity growth rate is relatively high, with two main devices: a 250,000 - ton device of Hengyi Yida and a 550,000 - ton device of Xin Fengming, with a capacity growth rate of 8.7%. This may also put pressure on non - standard price differentials [14]. 3.4 Market Conditions and Related Indicators - Bottle chips: - Price: The price has been rising, with an average weekly quotation of 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [25]. - Basis and monthly spreads: The price has corrected from a high level, the basis has significantly recovered, the near - month monthly spreads are still affected by deliverable goods, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [22]. - Production and operating rates: The current effective capacity has reached 2.168 billion tons (CCF caliber), and after the commissioning of the Fuhai device, the capacity will increase to 2.198 billion tons. The operating rate of bottle chips this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [33]. - Raw materials: The PTA operating rate is low, and the processing margin has slightly recovered; the ethylene glycol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, and port inventories are increasing [34][42]. - Costs and profits: The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, the bottle chip processing margin is passively compressed, and the export profit is about 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. - Inventories: The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle chip factories is neutral, with inventories at around 13 days (CCF caliber), and the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons and 3.44 million tons in December [49]. - Device changes: Pay attention to the commissioning rhythm of new devices. In December, the operating rate increased. Some devices are planned for maintenance in January and are expected to restart in March [55]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have increased month - on - month. The operating rates of beverage, edible oil, and sheet material sectors have all shown an upward trend, but the overall demand for beverages and edible oil is still relatively weak [59][67][68]. - Exports: In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 658,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 7.088 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [82]. - Short - fiber: - Valuation: The basis has generally recovered, the monthly structure is in contango, and the near - month contracts are gradually flattening. The processing margin on the futures market is relatively low [95][99]. - Operating rates: Short - fiber factory operating rates are high, currently at 98.5% [105]. - Inventories: Polyester product inventories are generally at a low level, and short - fiber inventories have increased slightly, with the inventory index rising to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [8][109]. - Exports: In November, polyester exports increased year - on - year but showed a differentiated performance month - on - month. Short - fiber direct exports are expected to remain strong [113][15]. - Profits: The profits of long - fiber and chip sectors are weak, and losses are intensifying [117]. - Downstream: The operating rate of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventories are gradually increasing. The weaving operating rate has also decreased slightly [124][126]. 3.5 Textile and Apparel Market - Retail: In November 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [135]. - Exports: In November 2025, textile and apparel exports decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 174.919 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [143][147].