豆粕：低位震荡，关注美豆出口与南美天气；豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures contracts are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, US soybean weekly export sales reports) and South American weather. For soybeans, although the pre - holiday policy sentiment was strong, the external soybean market was weak. It is expected that the domestic market will mainly fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise, and subsequent state reserve situations should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Movements of US and Domestic Soybean Futures - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. In the week of January 2, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 2.4%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74%. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. In the week of December 31, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) fell 1.47%, and the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) rose 2.74% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - Chinese continued to purchase US soybeans in limited quantities, which had a neutral impact. From December 29 to January 2, 2026, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans to China and unknown destinations was about 367,000 tons, and to Egypt was 100,000 tons (for delivery in the 2025/26 season). As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 603,000 tons. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 85,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1.401 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 990,000 tons (about 2.4 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were - 480,000 tons (about 2.85 million tons the previous week), with a total of about 985,000 tons (about 2.43 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were about 620,000 tons (1.38 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 603,000 tons. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which had a negative impact. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margin increased week - on - week. - The soybean planting in Argentina is gradually coming to an end. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was about 82%, compared with about 93% in the same period last year. - According to the weather forecast on January 2, 2026, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be "low first and then high"; the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be less (the precipitation will improve starting from January 8), and the temperature will be low. Although the precipitation in the Argentine产区 was less from late December 2025 to early January 2026, due to the forecast of improved precipitation in mid - and early - January, the market did not trade on the "short - term lack of precipitation" and mainly conducted bearish trading based on the view that "weather problems are not significant" [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), the trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 160,000 tons the previous week. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 182,000 tons, compared with about 183,000 tons the previous week. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - The inventory of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [2]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains (the mainstream purchase price of clean grains passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,160 - 4,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; in some parts of Inner China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade, packaged, and tower - selected Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,580 - 4,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, 2025, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction about 190,000 tons of domestic soybeans produced in 2022 through competitive bidding, and the actual transaction volume was about 155,900 tons, with a reserve price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,014 yuan/ton, and a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton. This was the third state - reserve soybean auction, and the participants were still manufacturers and various trading entities, with a lower premium compared with the previous two auctions. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, and attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. Although the overall trading in the sales - area market was slow, as the Spring Festival approached, all sectors of the market had restocking demand, and prices might rise [3].