——转债周度跟踪20251231：偏股转债估值重回高位，警惕双高转债-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, convertible bonds have seen a new round of recovery. High - parity equity - biased convertible bonds led the rise, and the military sector under the commercial space theme had a large increase. High - parity convertible bond valuations returned to high levels, but the valuations of debt - biased convertible bonds loosened. Convertible bonds are expected to benefit from the rise of the equity market and the activity of small and micro - cap stocks, but beware of the valuation risks of "double - high" convertible bonds represented by newly - issued ones [3][4]. - The market declined slightly this week, but the 100 - yuan premium rate rose 0.3% to 31.1%, approaching the high point on August 25, 2025. The overall valuation of the equity - biased area was better than that of the debt - biased and balanced areas this week [3][5]. - This week, Yingtai Convertible Bond announced redemption with a 100% forced redemption rate. One convertible bond proposed a downward revision, and Hongchuan Convertible Bond announced the downward revision result without reaching the bottom. Shanbo Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - back notice [20][26][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Outlook - Since December 2025, high - parity equity - biased convertible bonds led the rise in the recovery. Due to the commercial space theme and the release of forced redemption risks, high - parity convertible bond valuations returned to high levels. The valuations of debt - biased convertible bonds loosened due to the shortening of the remaining term and weaker - than - expected downward revisions. Convertible bonds are expected to benefit from the equity market and small - cap stocks, but beware of "double - high" convertible bond valuation risks [3][4]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The market declined slightly this week, and the 100 - yuan premium rate rose 0.3% to 31.1%, close to the 2025/8/25 high of 31.4%. After excluding outliers, the market - wide 100 - yuan premium rate was 31.1%, up 0.3% this week, at the 99.8% percentile since 2017 [3][5]. - By observing different parity intervals, the equity - biased area's valuation was better than the debt - biased and balanced areas this week. The 120 - 140 yuan parity interval's valuation rose slightly, and the over - 140 yuan parity interval's valuation was roughly flat [3][9]. - In the high - parity area, convertible bonds with significant valuation declines were those in the redemption process or "double - high" ones. In the medium - and low - parity area, they were near - maturity or non - downward - revised convertible bonds [3][12]. - From the perspective of the conversion premium rate, the 110 - 120 yuan and 80 - 90 yuan parity intervals had relatively low historical quantiles. From the perspective of the bottom - protection premium rate, the 70 - 90 yuan parity interval had relatively low historical quantiles [3][16]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Yingtai Convertible Bond announced redemption, and no convertible bond announced non - redemption, with a forced redemption rate of 100%. There are currently 12 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4 billion yuan [20]. - There are 27 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process. Seven are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 12 are expected to issue potential redemption trigger announcements. Seventeen convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced redemption counting period within the next month [22]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - One convertible bond proposed a downward revision this week, and Hongchuan Convertible Bond announced the downward revision result without reaching the bottom. As of now, 111 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 19 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced, 22 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [26]. 3.3.3 Put - back - Shanbo Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - back notice this week. As of now, 5 convertible bonds are accumulating put - back trigger days, among which 3 are also accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision interval [28]. 3.4 New Issuance Progress - As of now, there are 9 convertible bonds in the approval - in - progress stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 11.2 billion yuan; and 6 in the listing - committee - approved stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 3.4 billion yuan [30].