新能源及有色金属月报：TC不改下滑趋势，锌价估值偏低-20260104

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TC of domestic zinc mines continues to decline, and although the zinc ore import window is open due to the convergence of internal and external price ratios after overseas zinc ingot centralized warehousing, the purchasing demand of smelters remains strong, and TC is expected to decline slightly. The current zinc price is undervalued with positive domestic and overseas expectations [1][2] - The production of domestic zinc mines has entered the winter production - reduction cycle, with the output in November 2025 being 311,400 metal tons, 12,000 tons less than expected. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7%. As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons [2] - In December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected due to the continuous decline of TC. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, but it is still expected to be in a net export state in December. The comprehensive smelting of zinc ingots still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots has shown a downward trend [3] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide have all increased slightly. In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.60%, and the cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Concentrate - In December, the domestic zinc concentrate TC dropped 550 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index decreased from $61.25/ton to $43.75/ton. The price negotiation for January is still ongoing, and it is expected to decline slightly [2] - In November 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate output was 311,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 metal tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, 12,000 tons less than expected. It is expected that the output in December will be 320,000 metal tons. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7% [2] - As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons. The raw material inventory of smelters was 388,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons, and the available days increased by 1.5 days to 22.3 days, but the available days of inventory are still low [2] Refined Zinc - According to SMM data, in December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected [3] - Due to the opening of the export window, in November 2025, China's net export of zinc ingots was 24,500 tons, and the cumulative net import from January to November was 228,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, and it is still expected to be in a net export state in December [3] - In terms of smelting profit, both domestic and imported TC have dropped significantly. Although the zinc price is oscillating strongly, the net smelting loss is still - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive smelting still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - The latest inventory of zinc ingots in seven places is 106,000 tons, with a destocking of 38,000 tons in December. The consumption in the off - season at the end of the year shows resilience. Even after the export window is closed, the inventory still shows a downward trend. The warrant inventory is 42,419 tons, the bonded area inventory is 3,300 tons, and the latest LME inventory is 107,625 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of more than 50,000 tons in December [3] Consumption End - The operating rate of galvanizing is 57.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the operating rate of die - casting is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%; the operating rate of zinc oxide is 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [4] - In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.53% and a year - on - year increase of 13.60%. The cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [5]