汽车事件点评：以旧换新政策落地，看好2026Q1乘用车需求修复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the new national subsidy policy for vehicle replacement is expected to boost passenger car demand in Q1 2026 [2][6] - The report indicates that the adjustment of subsidies from fixed amounts to percentage-based will likely enhance the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][7] - The continuation of subsidies for scrapping old commercial vehicles is expected to stabilize market confidence and potentially exceed expectations for heavy truck demand in 2026 [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector showed a performance increase of 5.7% over the last month, a decrease of 3.2% over the last three months, and a significant increase of 24.2% over the last year [3] Policy Impact - The new subsidy policy for 2026 includes support for scrapping and replacing vehicles, with specific subsidies for purchasing new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars [6] - The maximum subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles is 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan), while for fuel-efficient cars, it is 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [6] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the automotive industry will continue to see opportunities in high-end self-owned brands and the acceleration of smart technology integration [7] - Recommended companies include Jianghuai Automobile, Great Wall Motors, Geely, BYD, BAIC Blue Valley, and SAIC Group [7] - The report also highlights potential growth in the heavy truck sector, with expected sales of over 86,000 units in 2026 [7]