年末补库支撑震荡，需求预期仍谨慎

1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of iron ore is supported by pre - holiday restocking by steel mills due to low raw material inventories and stable molten iron production, but the market remains cautious about the recovery of terminal demand after the Spring Festival. The price lacks continuous driving force and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with attention needed on the sustainability of post - holiday restocking and changes in the steel mill start - up rhythm [3]. - The overall market situation shows a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The expectation of winter restocking provides short - term resilience, but high inventories restrict the upward space. There are significant differences in short - term trends due to the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Global Shipment Volume: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,677.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 212.60 tons (+6.14%); Australian shipments were 2,113.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 163.10 tons (+8.36%); Brazilian shipments were 945.90 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.80 tons (+9.47%); the combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil was 3,059.60 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244.90 tons (+8.70%) [3][36]. - Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume: The report presents the shipment volume data and trends of four major mines (BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale) in different time periods [44][45][48]. - Freight Rates: The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45/ton (-13.99%); the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68/ton (-2.80%) [56]. - Iron Ore Arrival: This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 2,601.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.30 tons (-1.71%) [58]. - Domestic Mines: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 57.90%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% (-1.46%); the daily output of iron concentrate was 36.56 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 tons/day (-1.46%) [60]. 3.2 Demand - Steel Enterprise Production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% (+0.38%); the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 tons (+0.38%); the profit - making ratio of steel mills was 38.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87% (+2.34%) [70]. - Sintered Powder and Furnace Charge Ratio: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 7.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 tons (-0.26%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 60.70 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons (-0.64%) [72]. - Global Steel Output: The report shows the production data and trends of global blast furnace pig iron, crude steel, and China's blast furnace pig iron and crude steel in different time periods [80][82][84][87]. - Port Despatch: The report presents the seasonal data and trends of 45 - port despatch volume and the daily average despatch volume of Qingdao Port [92][94]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 15,970.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112.23 tons (+0.71%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 16,721.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.83 tons (+0.61%) [96]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 8,946.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 86.35 tons (+0.97%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 1,261.72 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55.47 tons (+4.60%) [105]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: - Main Contract Situation and Basis: The price of the main contract fluctuated strongly, with a settlement price of 789.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.50 yuan/ton (+2.00%); the basis was 41.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (+55.90%); the Platts Iron Ore Price Index was 108.50 dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 dollars/dry ton (+0.65%); the ratio of rebar to iron ore in the main contract was 3.961 [7]. - Inter - month Spread: The inter - month spread structure continued to be in contango, with the 9 - 1 spread at 36.50 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread at 15.50 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread at 21.00 yuan/ton [9]. - Spot Market: - Iron Ore Spot Price: The report shows the price trends of various iron ore products such as the Platts Iron Ore Index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [20][21]. - Price Difference between Lump Ore and Powder Ore: The report presents the price difference trends between different types of lump ore and powder ore [23][26]. - Price Difference between Different Grades: The report shows the price difference trends between different grades of iron ore [29][31]. 3.5 Other Information - Weekly Focus on Iron Ore: It includes important news and industrial chain dynamics, such as the suspension of the expansion project of Brazil's Samarco mine due to environmental permit issues and various macro - news [4]. - Summary of Market Views: There are 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 3 bearish views this week; last week, there were 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 1 bearish view. The core of the divergence lies in the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure under the relatively loose supply - demand situation [6]. - Profit Situation: The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 105.04 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.96 yuan/ton (-17.29%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 118.58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.69 yuan/ton (-15.46%) [112].