非银金融行业跟踪周报：看好保险2026年“开门红”，公募费改第三阶段落地-20260104

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to perform well in the "New Year" of 2026, with improved premium growth and favorable regulatory changes [5][25] - The public fund fee reduction in the third phase is officially implemented, which is anticipated to guide the development of equity funds and mitigate the impact on short-term bond funds [5][19] - The non-bank financial sector shows a mixed performance, with multi-financial outperforming the market while securities and insurance sectors face declines [10][11] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - In the last three trading days (December 29-31, 2025), only the multi-financial sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 1.07%, while the securities and insurance sectors fell by 1.36% and 3.29%, respectively [10] - Year-to-date performance shows the insurance sector leading with a 31.31% increase, followed by multi-financial at 12.72% and securities at 4.05% [11] Securities Sector - Trading volume has decreased month-on-month, with December's average daily trading volume at 21,860 billion CNY, up 24.49% year-on-year but down 2.46% from the previous month [15] - The margin financing balance reached 25,553 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 35.91% [15] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is estimated at 1.3x for 2025 [23] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported a premium growth of 9.2% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, with November's premium at 1,548 billion CNY, showing a smaller decline of 2.4% compared to the previous month [25] - The asset-liability management regulations are being revised to enhance oversight, with a focus on long-term operational stability [28] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.68-0.99 times the 2025 expected P/EV, indicating a historical low and maintaining an "Overweight" rating [29] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its total assets reach 32.43 trillion CNY by mid-2025, a year-on-year growth of 20.11% [31] - The futures market recorded a trading volume of 770 million contracts in November, with a transaction value of 66.61 trillion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.54% and 7.11%, respectively [37] - The report suggests that the future direction for the futures industry may focus on innovative risk management services [42] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial, with key companies including China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Tonghuashun [45]