产需不匹配格局仍存，多晶硅偏强宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of mismatch between production and demand still exists. Polysilicon shows a strong and wide - range oscillation, while industrial silicon prices oscillate within a range under the situation of weak supply and demand, with cost maintaining support [1][4]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The upward height depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the progress of inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 57,000 - 61,000 yuan/ton, waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer [4][7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Situation Review - Industrial silicon: The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of the main contract on the futures market first fell and then rose. The overall profit level is relatively average. The consumption side has a slight decline, and the inventory may maintain a slight accumulation. - Polysilicon: The supply side decreased slightly in December. The downstream prices increased, but the high - inventory pressure and weak demand recovery have not been fundamentally resolved. The price increased slightly in December, and the futures market first rose and then fell [4][5][6]. 2. Supply - side Data - Industrial silicon: As of December 25, the total number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces was 796, and the number of open furnaces increased by 23 compared with November. The overall furnace - opening rate was 30.53%. The monthly output increased significantly compared with the previous month. The expected supply is expected to weaken. The import volume from January to November 2025 decreased by 64% year - on - year [1]. - Polysilicon: The total output in December was about 115,000 tons. Some leading enterprises reduced production at the end of the year, and the output decreased to match the demand due to factors such as industry self - discipline and the traditional off - season of demand [4]. 3. Consumption - side Review - Industrial silicon: In December, the downstream demand continued to tighten. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the organic silicon start - up rate declined, and the aluminum alloy industry mainly purchased on demand. The export volume in November 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the gradual consumption of inventory, the replenishment demand is expected to be released, but the overall consumption side will decline slightly [2]. - Polysilicon: The downstream prices increased. The domestic silicon wafer production in December decreased by 19.3% month - on - month, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The battery cell production increased in September. The component price continued to oscillate, and the production in December was about 38.7GW, with the production schedule in January expected to decline slightly [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Basis Analysis - Industrial silicon: The current basis is about 340 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the basis expanded. It is expected that the 553 basis will oscillate around 400 yuan/ton in January 2026, and the 421 basis will oscillate around 850 yuan/ton. The reverse - spread strategy between the January and February contracts can be concerned [11]. - Polysilicon: The current N - type dense material average price is at a discount of - 6420 yuan/ton to the futures main contract. Due to the influence of the establishment of the platform company and the expected storage policy, the basis has continued to expand. If the policy has no obvious progress, the basis is expected to be strong but show a recovery state, moving towards - 4000 yuan/ton [11].