玻璃月报：供给持续收缩，年末行情平淡-20260104

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Glass - In December, 6 glass production lines entered cold repair, reducing the daily melting volume by about 4,000 tons and the output by about 2.5% month-on-month. The current daily melting volume in the industry is around 152,000 tons, the lowest in the past five years, but glass manufacturers' inventories remain relatively abundant [12][13]. - With the arrival of winter, construction progress in the north has been affected, and some projects have completed procurement in advance, leading to a decline in overall demand. The market lacks substantial demand recovery or policy incentives, resulting in cautious capital sentiment and a dull trading atmosphere [12][13]. - The news that Hubei glass enterprises are required to complete clean fuel transformation by August 31, 2026, has limited impact on the actual supply - demand pattern in the industry. The market may still have room to rise, and it is recommended to focus on the upward price range of 1,100 - 1,150 yuan/ton [12][13] Soda Ash - In December, the domestic soda ash market showed a narrow - range consolidation trend with limited price fluctuations and slightly different regional trends. Some ammonia - soda enterprises' operating rates declined due to phased maintenance and short equipment outages, but the slightly increased joint - soda method operating rate offset the supply gap to some extent [56][57]. - Downstream procurement is still mainly for rigid demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is dull. However, the high operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry above 80% provides some structural support for soda ash demand [56][57]. - In late December, the chemical sector was generally bullish, driving soda ash, but the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the market lacks clear positive drivers. It is recommended to consider short positions when the price is in the range of 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [56][57] 3. Summary by Directory Glass 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of December 31, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,087 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton month - on - month; the basis was - 87 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton week - on - week [12][17] - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton; that with coal was - 21.88 yuan/ton, down 14.25 yuan/ton; and that with petroleum coke was - 7.21 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan/ton [12][26][29] - Supply: The weekly output of float glass nationwide was 1.084 million tons, down 0.19 million tons; the number of operating production lines was 218, down 1; and the operating rate was 73.89% [12][33] - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders for float glass were 9.7 days, down 0.40 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, up 0.80% [12][36] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory of float glass nationwide was 58.623 million heavy boxes, up 65,000 heavy boxes; that in the Shahe area was 4.3176 million heavy boxes, up 431,200 heavy boxes [12][46] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Basis: As of December 31, 2025, the basis of float glass was - 87 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] - Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 130 yuan/ton (- 39), the 05 - 09 spread was - 105 yuan/ton (- 2), the 09 - 01 spread was 235 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the open interest reached 1.3713 million lots [20] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 186.4 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton; that with coal was - 21.88 yuan/ton, down 14.25 yuan/ton; and that with petroleum coke was - 7.21 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan/ton [26][29] - Cost: The low - end price of LNG in Henan was 3,700 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [26] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly output of float glass nationwide was 1.084 million tons, down 0.19 million tons; the number of operating production lines was 218, down 1; and the operating rate was 73.89% [33] - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders for float glass were 9.7 days, down 0.40 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, up 0.80% [36]. From January to November 2025, the cumulative commercial housing sales area was 787.0174 million square meters, down 7.80% year - on - year; in November, the single - month sales area was 67.1974 million square meters, down 17.93% year - on - year. In November, the automobile production and sales were 3.5316 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 2.76% and 3.40% year - on - year; from January to November, the cumulative production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively [39][42] 3.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory of float glass nationwide was 58.623 million heavy boxes, up 65,000 heavy boxes; that in the Shahe area was 4.3176 million heavy boxes, up 431,200 heavy boxes [46] Soda Ash 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of December 31, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton month - on - month; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1,213 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton month - on - month; the basis was - 63 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week [56][61] - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 137.4 yuan/ton, up 9.30 yuan/ton; that of the joint - soda method was - 88.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton [56][71] - Supply: The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, down 0.95 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 81.65%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.56 tons, down 0.47 tons; the output of light soda ash was 32.63 tons, down 0.48 tons [56][81][84] - Demand: As of December 31, 2025, the weekly output of float glass nationwide was 108.40 tons, down 0.19 tons; the number of operating production lines was 218, down 1; and the operating rate was 73.89%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 2.89 million tons [56][87] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4385 million tons, down 60,800 tons; the inventory available days were 11.93 days, down 0.50 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 70.3 tons, down 6.87 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 73.55 tons, up 0.79 tons [56][91][94] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Basis: As of December 31, 2025, the basis of soda ash was - 63 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week [61] - Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 76 yuan/ton (- 22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 66 yuan/ton (- 9), the 09 - 01 spread was 142 yuan/ton (+ 31), and the open interest reached 1.3713 million lots [64] 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 137.4 yuan/ton, up 9.30 yuan/ton; that of the joint - soda method was - 88.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton [71] - Cost: The price of steam coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 686 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the low - end price of LNG in Henan was 3,700 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,307 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [74][77] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, down 0.95 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 81.65%. The output of heavy soda ash was 38.56 tons, down 0.47 tons; the output of light soda ash was 32.63 tons, down 0.48 tons [81][84] - Demand: As of December 31, 2025, the weekly output of float glass nationwide was 108.40 tons, down 0.19 tons; the number of operating production lines was 218, down 1; and the operating rate was 73.89%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in November reached 2.89 million tons [87] 3.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4385 million tons, down 60,800 tons; the inventory available days were 11.93 days, down 0.50 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 70.3 tons, down 6.87 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 73.55 tons, up 0.79 tons [91][94]