原油月报：等待地缘高点-20260104

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In early 2026, geopolitical issues in Latin America resurfaced, potentially causing minor impacts on crude oil prices. The narrowing oscillation of crude oil prices in December 2025 is expected to continue. [15] - The US Energy Department released previously postponed data, showing a seasonal decline in refinery operations but still stronger than in previous periods, and a slight increase in Cushing inventories. Russian exports have recovered after falling from their peak in September. [15] - At the macro - political level, the final value of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations, and the combination of a "strong economy + interest - rate cut cycle" continued. Politically, the US military raided and captured Maduro, but domestic oil and gas facilities were not damaged. In Yemen, conflicts between Saudi - and UAE - supported factions have raised concerns about their relationship, but it is unlikely to affect OPEC+ production coordination. [15] - Given that most of the inventory is at sea and concentrated in the Asia - Pacific region, the upward potential of oil prices due to geopolitical situations is limited. However, the valuations of heavy oil and asphalt will significantly benefit. It is recommended to go long on the cracking spreads of heavy oil and asphalt during the window when the sea - borne inventory is not fully released. [15][17] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In December 2025, crude oil prices showed a narrowing oscillation. At the beginning of 2026, geopolitical issues in Latin America flared up again, which may have a minor impact on crude oil prices. [15] - Supply - Demand Changes: US refinery operations declined seasonally but were still stronger than before, and Cushing inventories increased slightly. Russian exports recovered after the September peak. [15] - Macro - Political Situation: The US GDP in Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, and the "strong economy + interest - rate cut cycle" persisted. Geopolitical events included the capture of Maduro and conflicts in Yemen, but OPEC+ production coordination is expected to remain stable. [15] - Viewpoint Summary: Limited upward potential for oil prices due to sea - borne inventory, but heavy oil and asphalt valuations will benefit. Long heavy oil and asphalt cracking spreads during the inventory release window. [15][17] 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators: The report presents relationships between indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread with WTI oil prices. [48] - Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators: It includes the euro - area investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, US GDP growth rate forecasts, and global major country GDP growth rate forecasts. [55][56] - Geopolitical Indicators: The Middle - East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil - producing countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are shown, along with their relationships with WTI oil prices. [63] 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - Forward Curve: It shows the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI M1 price. [67] - Inter - regional Spreads: Spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI are presented. [71][73] - Product Spreads: It includes the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined products, and spreads like RB/HO and LGO/RB. [79] - Cracking Spreads: Cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are analyzed. [85][88][91] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - OPEC & OPEC+ Supply: It details the results of OPEC's past meetings, the production and quota situations of OPEC and OPEC+ countries, and the supply and export forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries and major OPEC+ members. [97][99][103] - US Supply: The US government has made various policies regarding oil, such as budget cuts for the SPR, potential sanctions adjustments, and plans to increase local production. The report also shows data on US oil wells, rigs, production, and exports. [128][130][132] - Other Supply: It includes the production forecasts of countries like Canada, Norway, and Brazil, as well as China's crude oil production. [137] 3.5 Crude Oil Demand - US Demand: It covers direct demand from refineries (including crude oil input, refinery capacity utilization, and parking capacity) and imports/exports, as well as derived demand for gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, aviation kerosene, and refined product imports/exports. Micro - demand indicators such as bank car loans, railway traffic, and aviation security passenger flow are also presented. [144][147][150] - Chinese Demand: It includes direct demand (crude oil input, imports, and refinery operations) and derived demand for gasoline, diesel, and refined product exports. Micro - demand indicators such as new - energy vehicle penetration and population migration are also shown. [166][172][174] - European Demand: It includes direct demand from refineries (refinery operations, crude oil input, and profits) and imports, as well as derived demand for refined products. [185][187][190] - Indian Demand: It shows India's crude oil input, refinery operating rate, imports, and demand forecasts. [195] - Other Demand: It includes the average daily speeds of different types of oil tankers and oil - transportation quality models. [199][203] 3.6 Crude Oil Inventory - US Inventory: It includes commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, and inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene, as well as their available - days data. [209][211][213] - Chinese Inventory: It includes crude oil port inventories and inventories of gasoline and diesel, as well as their production - sales ratios. [218][221][224] - European Inventory: It includes ARA inventories and inventories of 16 European countries for various refined products and crude oil. [229][234][237] - Singapore Inventory: It shows inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined products. [241] - Fujairah Inventory: It includes inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined products at the port. [246] - Maritime Inventory: It includes floating storage of refined products (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and kerosene), heavy and light oils, and crude oil, as well as the relationship between VLCC and Suezmax floating storage and WTI oil prices. [251][255][259] 3.7 Meteorological Disasters - It presents storm models in the US Gulf of Mexico and the Middle - East straits, as well as wildfire probability models in Canada and rainstorm & thunderstorm data in the US Gulf of Mexico. [264][270] 3.8 Alternative Data - It includes data on crude oil maritime in - transit supply, oil - transportation demand models, shipping fees in the Arabian Sea, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked according to media polls, along with their relationships with WTI oil prices. [276]