油脂月报：弱现实，强预期-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the domestic edible oil market is weak, with high palm oil production in major producing areas, sluggish exports, and high inventory levels. The inventory of the three major domestic edible oils is also at a relatively high level. However, in the medium term, the small number of domestic soybean purchases and expected low arrivals from February to March provide some support to prices. In the long term, there may be a significant increase in the total consumption of edible oils for U.S. biodiesel in 2026, and there are expectations of a month-on-month decline in palm oil production in major producing areas. Overall, the present situation is weak, but the outlook is optimistic, and edible oil prices may not be far from the bottom range [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In December, the prices of the three major domestic edible oils declined. As of December 31, the closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 7,862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton or 2.21% from the previous month; the May palm oil contract closed at 8,584 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton or 1.08%; the May rapeseed oil contract closed at 9,087 yuan/ton, down 414 yuan/ton or 4.36%. In terms of spreads, the May - September spread of soybean oil contracts was 96 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous month; the May - September spread of palm oil contracts was 120 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the May - September spread of rapeseed oil contracts was 32 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the May soybean oil contract was 554 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous month; the basis of the May palm oil contract was -58 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the May rapeseed oil contract was 734 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Information: According to MPOB data, Malaysia's palm oil production in November was 1.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.38%; exports were 1.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.45%; the ending inventory was 2.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 54.43%. According to GAPKI data, Indonesia's palm oil production (CPO + PPO) in October was 4.76 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78%; exports were 2.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.19%; the ending inventory was 2.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.75%. According to sample data released by MYSTEEL, as of December 26, the inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.27% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.06%. The arrival of soybeans was 6.53 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.21% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.44% [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait-and-see approach [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of May contracts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties, including the May - September spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, and the spread between May soybean oil and May palm oil contracts, etc. [19][21][23] 3.3 Supply Side - The report provides multiple charts showing the monthly production and exports of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly imports of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [29][31][32] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - The report provides multiple charts showing the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants, the average coastal spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [37][39][41] 3.5 Cost Side - The report provides multiple charts showing the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, the near - month shipping price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [49][52] 3.6 Demand Side - Edible Oil Transactions: The report provides charts showing the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [57] - Biodiesel Profit: The report provides charts showing the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60]