沥青月报：地缘驱动估值-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - term, it is likely that the valuation of asphalt will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [15]. - In the short - term, considering that most of the crude oil is in maritime inventory and mostly distributed in the Asia - Pacific region, the upward range of oil prices due to geopolitical situations is limited, but the valuations of heavy oil and asphalt will significantly benefit. It is recommended to go long on the asphalt cracking spread during the period when the maritime inventory cannot be fully released [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January 2025 to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are situations of supply - demand increase, cost decrease, etc. [13][14]. - Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume a certain level of operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes has improved, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [15]. - Short - term Factor Assessment: Supply is neutral - bearish as the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising and overall imports remain strong. Demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all demand segments are weak and downstream shipments are flat. Inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking and domestic total inventory exceeds expectations. The cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and is in a weak shock process. The previous month's view was to wait and see, while this month's view is to go long on the asphalt cracking spread [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [19][21][23]. - Basis Trend: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - Term Structure: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, and 03 - 06 [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt from 2021 to 2025, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][46]. - Imports: It includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, the import profit from different regions, and the cumulative import volume from countries such as South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia [51][54]. - Valuation Ratio: It shows the ratio trends of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - Refinery Profit: It presents the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit of petroleum coke [60][63]. 4. Inventory - Domestic Inventory: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [68]. - Warehouse Receipts: It shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract from 2021 to 2025 [71]. - Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price: It shows the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [74]. 5. Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [78][80][84]. - Downstream Start - up Rate: It shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [89][92]. - Highway Investment: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [94][97][104]. - Road - related Machinery: It shows the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [105][109]. - Related Consumption: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management industries, as well as the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance [112][113]. 6. Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures from 2021 to 2025 [123][121]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: It includes exploration and extraction links [127][128]. - Asphalt Industrial Chain: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [131].