工业硅&多晶硅月报：工业硅供需难改善，震荡偏弱；多晶硅风控措施降温，观察为主-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon supply - demand is difficult to improve, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The price increase is mainly due to commodity sentiment, and it may face pressure when the market sentiment changes. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - For polysilicon, after the exchange's risk - control measures, the futures position has declined, trading volume has shrunk, and liquidity has tightened. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It's advisable to observe the actual spot transactions and changes in risk - control measures [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 31, 2025, in the East China region, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8850 yuan/ton, also a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton [13][22]. - In December 2025, the industrial silicon output was 35.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 405.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.23 tons or 13.86% [30]. - The 1 - 12 month cumulative output of polysilicon was 130.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46%. The DMC output from January to December was 247.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93%. The cumulative output of aluminum alloy from January to November was 1745.6 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 289.50 tons or 19.88%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to November was 65.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.24 tons or 1.95% [13]. - At the end of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 50.33 tons, with factory inventory at 26.62 tons, market inventory at 19.00 tons, and registered warehouse - receipt inventory at 4.71 tons [13][49]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - Industrial silicon: As of December 31, 2025, in the East China region, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8850 yuan/ton, also a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton [13][22]. - Polysilicon: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 53 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.7 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.5 yuan/kg [16][25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total output: In December 2025, the industrial silicon output was 35.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 405.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.23 tons or 13.86% [30]. - Main production areas: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8487.50 yuan/ton, 9720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan [13][46]. - Production cost: As of December 31, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remained flat month - on - month, and the silicon stone price was stable month - on - month. The silicon coal price in the main production areas also remained flat month - on - month [43][46]. - Visible inventory: At the end of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 50.33 tons, with factory inventory at 26.62 tons, market inventory at 19.00 tons, and registered warehouse - receipt inventory at 4.71 tons [13][49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Output: In December, the SMM - caliber polysilicon output was 11.22 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 130.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46% [16][54]. - Operating rate and production schedule: The operating rate in November was 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. The estimated output in January was 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease [57]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the polysilicon inventory was 30.83 tons according to the Baichuan Yingfu caliber and 30.6 tons according to the SMM caliber, with factory inventory accumulating [15][60]. - Cost and profit: At the end of December, the production cost was 42321.68 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 7888.84 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63]. - Downstream: In December, the silicon wafer output was 43.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10.47GW; the battery output was 46.76GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.85GW; the component output was 38.7GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2GW [15]. 3.5 Silicone - Output: In December, the DMC output was 20.48 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 247.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [92]. - Price and profit: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of silicone was 13600 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 400 yuan/ton, and the DMC gross profit was 1659.38 yuan/ton [95]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the DMC inventory was 4.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 tons [98]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum alloy: As of December 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 22820 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 910 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 22510 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 1180 yuan/ton. The cumulative output from January to November was 1745.6 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 289.50 tons or 19.88%. At the end of December, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 60% [103][106]. - Exports: From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 65.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.24 tons or 1.95% [109].