股指月报：年初配置资金有望入场，逢低做多-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market. Coupled with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to - long - term strategy should be mainly based on buying on dips [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: Trump claimed to have captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife and taken them out of Venezuela; in the "14th Five - Year Plan" opening year, multiple new rockets will make their maiden flights and attempt recovery; during the New Year's Day holiday, the Hang Seng Index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index soared; the National Integrated Circuit Fund increased its stake in SMIC H - shares from 4.79% to 9.25%; the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through 6.97, reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest since May 2023 [11] - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In November 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year; the official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, up from 49.2, with improvements in production and orders; in November 2025, the M1 growth rate was 4.9% (previous value 6.2%), and the M2 growth rate was 8.2% (previous value 8.0%), mainly affected by the base effect and reduced fiscal transfer payments; the social financing increment in November was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the increase in short - and medium - term corporate loans; in November 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year (previous value - 1.1%), with a significant improvement in exports to the EU; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, higher than the estimated 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than the estimated 4.5% [11] - Interest Rate and Credit Environment: This week, both the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate and the credit bond interest rate rebounded slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened towards the end of the year [11] - Trading Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Hold a small number of IM long positions. The valuation is at a moderately low level, and IM has a long - term discount. Recommended for the long - term, first proposed on July 23, 2022, with a recommendation grade of ★★★★★ [13] - Unilateral: Hold IF long positions with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1. A new round of interest - rate cuts has begun, and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit. Recommended for 6 months, first proposed on July 18, 2025, with a recommendation grade of ★★★★☆ [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Stock Index Points and Changes: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3968.84, up 5.16 points or + 0.13%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13525.02, down 78.87 points or - 0.58%; the ChiNext Index was at 3203.17, down 40.70 points or - 1.25%; the Hang Seng Index was at 26338, up 520 points or + 2.01%; the AH ratio was at 120.89, down 1.28% [15] - Futures Index Points, Turnover and Changes: For example, IF current - month contract was at 4622.2, with a turnover of 11.51 billion yuan, down 32 points or - 0.69% [16] 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators - GDP: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, expected to be 4.76%, and the previous value was 5.2% [33] - PMI: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, up from 49.2, with improvements in production and orders [11][33] - Consumption: In November 2025, the consumption growth rate was 1.3%, down from 2.9%, showing a decline for six consecutive months [36] - Exports: In November 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year (previous value - 1.1%), mainly due to the month - on - month improvement in exports to the EU [11][36] - Investment: In November 2025, the investment growth rate was - 2.6% (previous value - 1.7%). Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, real - estate investment decreased by 15.9%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1%, all continuing the downward trend [39] - Corporate Earnings: In the 2025 third - quarter report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, 1.22 percentage points higher than that in the semi - annual report; the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89%, 1.83 percentage points higher than that in the semi - annual report [42] 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: This week, both the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rate rebounded slightly [11][45] - Credit Environment - M1 and M2: In November 2025, the M1 growth rate was 4.9% (previous value 6.2%), and the M2 growth rate was 8.2% (previous value 8.0%), mainly affected by the base effect and reduced fiscal transfer payments [11][57] - Social Financing: The social financing increment in November was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the growth of short - and medium - term corporate financing [11][57] 3.5 Capital Flow - Inflow: This month, about 59 billion new shares of equity - oriented funds were established, a decline from the previous period; the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 82 billion yuan, and the latest balance was 253.8518 billion yuan, hitting a new high [63][66] - Outflow: This month, major shareholders' shareholding reductions remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [69] 3.6 Valuation - Price - Earnings Ratio (TTM): Shanghai 50 was at 11.85, CSI 300 was at 14.17, CSI 500 was at 33.80, and CSI 1000 was at 46.30 [73] - Price - to - Book Ratio (LF): Shanghai 50 was at 1.30, CSI 300 was at 1.49, CSI 500 was at 2.32, and CSI 1000 was at 2.47 [73]