鸡蛋月报：等反弹后抛空-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply remains high. However, the late Spring Festival keeps the stocking sentiment alive, and the expectation of capacity reduction due to continuous losses still exists. In the short - term, the downside space for the spot price is limited, but the upside space is also restricted. - The futures market has partially priced in the post - festival price decline and future capacity reduction expectations, lacking short - term driving forces. From a valuation perspective, focus on shorting after a rebound [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: In December, domestic egg prices rose first and then fell, showing a strong - side oscillation. The demand improved slightly, and the number of culled chickens increased slightly, with the chicken age declining. However, the large inventory and high proportion of peak - laying hens led to a high laying rate, limiting the price increase. At the end of the month, market confidence was insufficient, and egg prices dropped slightly. In January, due to the Spring Festival stocking, demand will increase, and egg prices may rise gradually, reaching the peak in the second half of the month. In February, during the Spring Festival holiday, demand will decline significantly, and egg prices may drop sharply [11]. - Replenishment and Culling: Affected by the weak egg prices and continuous losses in farming, the market's replenishment sentiment remained low. Due to seasonal factors, the replenishment in December increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decline of 13.9%. The egg price rebound was weak, and farming losses expanded. The market's culling sentiment remained positive. The price of old chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year, and the culling - white chicken price spread further narrowed. The chicken age dropped to 484 days, but it was still far from excessive culling. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous period and slightly lower than expected, mainly because the number of newly - laying hens gradually decreased and the number of culled chickens exceeded expectations. However, the absolute number was still large, a month - on - month decrease of 8 million compared to November and a 5% year - on - year increase compared to 1.28 billion in December last year. Based on previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply will still be high [11]. - Demand: Traders have completed their New Year's Day stocking. As the goods are gradually consumed, traders may start restocking after New Year's Day, and the demand is expected to increase first and then decrease this month [11]. - Trading Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, stop the profit of previous short positions and then wait and observe, paying attention to the upper pressure. For the arbitrage strategy, focus on reverse arbitrage [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: The domestic egg prices in December showed a strong - side oscillation, rising first and then falling. The increase was limited by large supply. The prices in different regions showed different trends. In January, prices may rise due to Spring Festival stocking, and in February, they may decline due to reduced demand [20]. - Basis and Spread: The basis is low, and the weak spot price trend leads the spread to be suitable for reverse arbitrage [23]. - Culled Chicken Price: Although the egg price rebounded from a low level, the farming was still in a loss state. The market's culling sentiment remained positive, and the absolute price of culled chickens and the culling - white chicken price spread hit new lows [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - Egg - laying Hen Replenishment: Affected by weak egg prices and continuous farming losses, the market's replenishment sentiment remained low. In December, the replenishment increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decline of 13.9% [33]. - Culled Chicken Sales: The weak egg price rebound and expanded farming losses led to positive culling sentiment. The price of old chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year, and the culling - white chicken price spread further narrowed. The chicken age dropped to 484 days, but it was still far from excessive culling [36]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than expected. The inventory is expected to peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%. The absolute supply will still be high [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side Traders' New Year's Day stocking has ended. As the goods are gradually consumed, they may start restocking after New Year's Day, and the egg demand this month is expected to increase first and then decrease [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit The cost is lower year - on - year and month - on - month, and the profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].