聚酯月报：PX和PTA强预期修复利润，乙二醇弱基本面下震荡筑底-20260104

Report Title - PX and PTA Strong Expectations Repair Profits, Ethylene Glycol Oscillates at the Bottom under Weak Fundamentals - Polyester Monthly Report 2026/01/04 [1] Core Views - PX prices rebounded significantly last month, with a high load and expected slight inventory accumulation before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased substantially, and there is potential for mid - term long positions [11]. - PTA prices rose sharply last month. The processing fee rebounded significantly, but it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term destocking. There is room for valuation increase in the future, and attention should be paid to mid - term long - position opportunities [12]. - MEG prices fell and then rebounded last month. Under weak fundamentals, the inventory is accumulating, and the valuation is at a relatively low level. If there is no further domestic production reduction, the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [13]. Summary of Each Section 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: The price rebounded last month. As of December 30, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7358 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan. The supply load remained high, and imports increased in the first and middle of December. The demand side, PTA load decreased, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The PXN increased by 74 dollars to 357 dollars, and the valuation strengthened. In the short - term, pay attention to the callback risk, and in the medium - term, look for long - position opportunities on dips [11]. - PTA: The price rose last month. As of December 30, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5152 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan. The supply load decreased, and the demand side of polyester is entering the off - season. The inventory is expected to enter the accumulation cycle. The spot and futures processing fees increased significantly. In the short - term, it may enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and in the medium - term, look for long - position opportunities [12]. - MEG: The price fell and then rebounded last month. As of December 30, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3846 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 132 yuan. The supply load was high, and imports are expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating at ports. The valuation is at a relatively low level, and in the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed without further production reduction [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - PX: The basis weakened oscillatingly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and the trading volume was strong [33][37]. - PTA: The basis oscillated, and the spread increased. Both the position and trading volume increased [40][43]. - MEG: The basis was weak, and the spread oscillated weakly. The position decreased [52][59]. 3. PX Fundamentals - New Capacity: Domestic new capacities include FJDH (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, HJAM with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and YTYLD with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - Production and Operation Rate: The domestic load at the end of the month was 88.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 79.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The maintenance volume in December was still small, and it is expected to remain stable in January [11]. - Imports: In November, imports decreased slightly. In the first and middle of December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 283,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons [11][83]. - Cost and Profit: PXN rebounded significantly, short - process profits were at a high level, and the naphtha crack spread oscillated [93]. - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil: Gasoline performance was weak, octane value decreased, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread declined, and the relative value of blending oil weakened [100][106][108]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - New Capacity: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III) added 2.5 million tons in June, Hailun Petrochemical 3 added 3.2 million tons in August, and Dushan Energy 4 added 3 million tons in October. In 2026, India Oil will add 1.2 million tons in H2, and GAIL will add 1.25 million tons in the first quarter [125]. - Production and Operation Rate: The load at the end of the month was 72.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. There were more maintenance devices in December, and it is expected to remain stable in January [12]. - Exports: Exports rebounded significantly in November, mainly due to the increase in exports to India [130]. - Inventory: There was a phased destocking. As of December 26, the overall social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 117,000 tons [12][133]. - Profit and Valuation: The processing fee rebounded significantly. The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan to 345 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee increased by 127 yuan to 345 yuan/ton [12][136]. 5. MEG Fundamentals - New Capacity: In 2025, Zhengdakai Phase I added 600,000 tons in May, Yulong Petrochemical 1 added 800,000 tons in September, and Yichang added 200,000 tons in December. In 2026, BASF will add 800,000 tons in January, Tianying will add 50,000 tons in September, HJAM will add 350,000 tons in October, and Zhongsha Gulei will add 1 million tons in December [140]. - Supply: The overall load remained at a high level. At the end of the month, the EG load was 73.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% [13][143]. - Imports: Imports decreased in November [145]. - Inventory: Port inventory is accumulating, and upstream and downstream inventories are at a high level [13]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices stabilized. The valuation of profits was at a relatively low level [164][167]. 6. Polyester and End - Users - Polyester New Capacity: There were new bottle - chip device put into operation, such as Sanfangxiang adding 1.5 million tons of polyester bottle - chips in Q1 and May 2025, and Yizheng Chemical Fibre adding 500,000 tons in January 2025 [183][185]. - Polyester Supply: The start - up rate is gradually entering the off - season [189]. - Polyester Inventory: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [196]. - Polyester Profit: Filament profits were low, and bottle - chip profits oscillated [206][208]. - End - User Start - up: The start - up rate is gradually declining [211]. - End - User Orders and Inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation was weak [219]. - End - User Consumption: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing rebounded, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high [224][226].