镍月报：宏观氛围积极叠加政策扰动，镍价触底反弹-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oversupply pressure of nickel remains significant, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to impose taxes on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have emerged. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M nickel contracts is expected to be between 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: In December, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, it was the rainy season, supply was low, domestic nickel - iron smelters had sufficient inventory, and procurement willingness was weak. In Indonesia, there was no clear news on RKAB approval progress, mines were cautious in shipping, and smelters' procurement demand was relatively weak, resulting in a cold market [12]. - Nickel - iron: In the supply side, nickel - iron plant profits were under pressure in December, and production scheduling decreased slightly. In the demand side, stainless - steel prices rose significantly due to macro - sentiment, steel mills' replenishment demand was released, and traders' inventory - building sentiment increased, so nickel - iron demand rebounded slightly. In general, with the rise of stainless - steel prices, the nickel - iron market became more active, and short - term prices may be strong [12]. - Intermediate products: This week, the coefficient of intermediate products remained high. Supply was high, but the market's tradable volume was insufficient. Demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a cold overall market. The current intermediate product market is more of a situation with prices but no transactions. As production increases, the coefficient price of intermediate products may decline [12]. - Refined nickel: In December, nickel rebounded from the bottom. On one hand, Indonesia announced that the nickel ore quota in 2026 would be tightened significantly and then proposed to tax cobalt and iron elements in nickel ore, which reignited market concerns about next year's nickel ore supply and exhausted short - selling power. On the other hand, the macro - environment was positive, and the non - ferrous metal sector was strong, enhancing the upward elasticity of nickel prices. In the spot market, overall transactions were still light, and premiums and discounts were stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price trends: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts [15]. - Nickel spot premiums and discounts: The report shows the premiums and discounts of domestic and LME nickel spot [18][19]. - Secondary nickel prices: The report includes the prices of nickel - iron and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [22][23]. 3.3 Cost End - Nickel ore: It includes the export volume, port - departure statistics, import volume, port inventory, and prices in the Philippines and Indonesia [27][28][29][30][31][32]. - Nickel - iron: It shows the monthly production and production profits in Indonesia and China [33][34][35][36]. - Intermediate products: It presents the production in Indonesia, import volume in China, and prices and transaction coefficients [37][38][39][40][41][42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Supply: In November 2025, the national refined nickel production was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [45][46][47]. - Demand: It includes the monthly production and social inventory of domestic stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand and real - estate demand in the manufacturing industry [48][49][50][51]. - Import and export: It shows the import volume and import profit - and - loss of domestic refined nickel [52][53]. - Inventory: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 1,435 tons to 311,421 tons. The report also shows the domestic and LME regional inventories [54][55][56]. - Cost: It presents the production cost by raw materials and the production profit rate by processes [57][58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Supply: It shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [60][61][62]. - Demand: It includes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [63][64][65]. - Cost and price: It presents the production cost and price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, as well as the production profit rate of main raw materials [66][67][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows the supply - demand balance of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including the production, consumption, supply - demand gap, and visible inventory of various nickel products in different regions [70][71].