棉花月报：淡季去库叠加种植面积调减，棉价上涨-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market had long anticipated the reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang. Currently, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent high, and the price volatility may increase. Fundamentally, the off - season is not slow, with a decent downstream operating rate. Despite domestic production increase, imports are restricted, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. Coupled with positive expectations, the price trend of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In December, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. By December 31, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was 64.3 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.43 cents per pound or 0.66% from the previous month. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton was - 1.32 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous month. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,585 yuan per ton, an increase of 900 yuan per ton or 6.58% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,556 yuan per ton, an increase of 660 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis was 971 yuan per ton, a decrease of 240 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was 70 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - Industry Information: In December 23, 2025, the Office of the Leading Group for the Development of the Cotton Industry in the Autonomous Region held a special meeting on reducing the cotton planting area in Xinjiang. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 10,000 tons year - on - year. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 900,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of November in the 2025/26 season (from August to July of the following year), China's cotton imports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons year - on - year. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week ending December 26, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous week, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 6.7 percentage points compared with the average of the past five years (71.4%). The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. The latest December monthly supply - demand report data released by USDA showed that the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was revised down by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons compared with November. Among them, the production forecast for the United States was revised up by 30,000 tons to 3.11 million tons; the production forecast for Brazil remained at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India remained at 5.23 million tons; and the production forecast for China remained at 7.29 million tons [9]. - View and Strategy: Wait for a pullback and then go long [9][10][11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread, the spinning mill's immediate profit, and various spreads of US cotton and international cotton price spreads, but no specific text analysis of these trends is provided [24]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - Domestic Cotton Production: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of cotton in China and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [38]. - Cotton Import Volume: Charts show China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes [40]. - US Export Contract Quantity to China: Charts show the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [42]. - Cotton Yarn Import Volume: Charts show China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes [44]. - Downstream Operating Rate: Charts show the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [47]. - National Sales Progress: Charts show the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [49]. - Cotton Inventory: Charts show China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial cotton [52]. - Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory: Charts show the cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning mills [54]. 3.4 International Market Situation - US Planting Situation: Charts show the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought, the cotton good - quality rate, the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton [58]. - US Production and Planting Area: Charts show the production forecast and planting area of US cotton [61]. - US Export Contract Progress: Charts show the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [65]. - US Export Shipment Volume: Charts show the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [67]. - US Supply and Demand Situation: Charts show the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [69]. - Brazilian Production and Planting Area: Charts show the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [70]. - Brazilian Export Volume: Charts show the export volume of Brazilian cotton [73]. - Brazilian Supply and Demand Situation: Charts show the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [76]. - Indian Production and Planting Area: Charts show the planting area and production of Indian cotton [78]. - Indian Consumption and Import - Export: Charts show the consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [81].