生猪月报：近月反弹抛空-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low prices stimulating consumption, the late Spring Festival causing demand to be postponed, and the structural shortage of large pigs jointly contributed to the unexpected rebound of pig prices. The logic for short - term pig price strength remains strong, but in the medium term, the logic supporting the current strong pig prices faces the risk of collapse. In the long term, the decline in production capacity will gradually be reflected in pig prices in the second half of the year [11][12]. - It is advisable to focus on the upper pressure of contracts close to the off - season and mainly short on rebounds. Pay attention to the lower support of far - month contracts [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market - Last month, domestic pig prices were stronger than expected. Before the Winter Solstice, pig prices were extremely firm, and they rebounded significantly after the Winter Solstice. In January, the overall supply remains abundant, and demand may have less concentrated stocking. Prices are expected to be weak first, then stable, and rise at the end of the month [11][22]. - The average pig price in Henan increased by 1.34 yuan to 12.7 yuan/kg, with a monthly high of 13.2 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it rose by 1.5 yuan to 12.8 yuan/kg, with a monthly high of 12.8 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it increased by 1.7 yuan to 13.06 yuan/kg [11][22]. - Supply Side - In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a 1.1% month - on - month decline, still 2.3% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a bearish supply situation this year and the first half of next year [11][33]. - The basic supply from now to May next year shows an increasing trend month by month. Before the Spring Festival this year, the pig market is still facing a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large body weight [11][41]. - In the short term, the market is still in a situation of large and excessive supply [11][48]. - Demand Side - After the pig price increase at the end of December, slaughtering enterprises generally reported that the terminal price increase was small, so they had a low acceptance of high - priced pigs and may reduce purchases and pressure prices, which has a negative impact on the market [11]. - Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, short contracts 03 and 05, and long contracts 09 and 11, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 - 3 months, driven by factors such as sows, body weight, and consumer demand, and a two - star recommendation [13]. - For arbitrage, no strategy is currently recommended [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Trend - Last month, pig prices rebounded unexpectedly. In January, prices may be weak first, then stable, and rise at the end of the month [22]. - The average pig prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong increased last month [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend - The spot price rebounded, the basis of the futures market turned positive, and the monthly spread turned into a positive spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes - The sow inventory in October was 39.9 million heads, a 1.1% month - on - month decline, still 2.3% more than the normal level. The policy - driven capacity reduction expectation is strong, and the progress of capacity reduction has accelerated recently [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter - From the piglet data, the basic supply from now to April next year shows an increasing trend. Before the Spring Festival this year, the pig market faces a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large body weight [41]. - Slaughter Size and Proportion - The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is not high but slowly rising, indicating a slight increase in diseases but overall controllable. The proportion of large pigs is rising seasonally, indicating that large pigs from散户 are being gradually released [44]. - Trading and Post - Slaughter Average Weight - Around the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume remained high, the frozen product inventory continued to rise, and the average trading weight of pigs decreased slightly, still larger than the same period last year. The short - term market supply is excessive [48]. 3.4 Demand Side - Slaughter Volume - Some southern regions are still in the peak demand period, which will boost the pig market. In the Northeast, there is a second - fattening restocking behavior, increasing the pressure on pig procurement for slaughterers [57]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is in a continuous downward state due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year due to the weak pig prices in the same period over the years [68]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [73].