蛋白粕月报 2026/01/04：向上缺乏驱动，下方存在支撑-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but near - month purchases are few. With expected low arrivals from February to March and pressured crushing margins, prices are expected to continue oscillating [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In December, CBOT soybean prices dropped significantly. The March contract closed at 1047.25 cents/bushel, down 98 cents/bushel (8.56% decline). In China, December saw falling prices of soybean and rapeseed meal. The May soybean meal contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton (3.37% decline), and the May rapeseed meal contract at 2365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (2.07% decline) [10]. - Industry Information: According to USDA data, the estimated global soybean production in December was 422.54 million tons, up 79,000 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, US cumulative soybean exports for the current year were 26.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.05 million tons. In November, Brazil exported 4.2 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.64 million tons [10]. - Fundamental Assessment: The 5 - month contract basis of soybean meal was +290 yuan/ton, and the US soybean 3 - 5 spread was - 13.5 cents/bushel. The soybean import crushing margin was - 81 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 399 yuan/ton. Overall, the market is expected to continue oscillating [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Spot Prices: The report presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [19][20]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract [22][23]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: The report provides charts of the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [25]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: Charts show the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: Charts display the planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans [31][32][35]. - Weather Conditions: Charts show the precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared to the same period of the year [37][38][41]. - US Soybean Export Progress: Charts present the cumulative signing volume, next - year signing volume, exports to China, and monthly imports of soybeans in the US, as well as China's soybean and rapeseed monthly imports [46][48][51]. - China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation: Charts show the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [55][56]. - Brazilian Soybean Export Situation: Charts display Brazil's monthly soybean exports, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, as well as Argentina's weekly and cumulative shipments to China [58][59][61]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills [69][70]. - Protein Meal Inventory: Charts present the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [72][73]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: Charts show the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas [75][76]. 3.5 Demand Side - Soybean Meal Demand: Charts display the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills [79]. - Breeding Profit: Charts show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [81][82].