锌月报：跨市矛盾修复，重回产业弱现实-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In December, zinc prices fluctuated upward. However, after the end of winter stockpiling, the domestic zinc ore supply may become more abundant. The enthusiasm for precious metals has ebbed, and Shanghai zinc may return to the industrial reality in the short term and give back some of its gains. In the medium term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation due to the generally bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector during the double - easing cycle [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Price Review: In December, the Shanghai zinc index rose 3.74% to 23,305 yuan/ton, with the total position of Shanghai zinc remaining at a relatively low level of around 200,000 lots. The LME zinc 3M contract rose 2.22% to $3,126/ton, and the total position of LME zinc increased by 13,100 lots to 231,200 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 23,300 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 120 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of 10 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 5 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 125 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 120 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was 125 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3,200 tons to 108,800 tons. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $32.22/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $29/ton. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.075, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,413.75 yuan/ton. - Industry Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 47 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 277,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 608,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.67%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 368,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 52.80%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.04%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 311,400 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.2% and a month - on - month change of - 5.9%. From January to November, the total zinc ore output was 3.382 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.4%. The net import of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4.8591 million dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in November 2025 was 545,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5.5686 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 277,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 608,000 physical tons [25][27]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In November 2025, the zinc ingot output was 595,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.6%. From January to November, the total zinc ingot output was 6.2815 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. The net import of zinc ingots in November 2025 was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in November 2025 was 572,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 6.5393 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.67%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 368,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 52.80%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.04%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons. - In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 6.4073 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot: In 2025, the supply - demand gap of domestic zinc ingots in November was a shortage of 31,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to November was a surplus of 131,900 tons. - Overseas Zinc Ingot: In September 2025, the supply - demand gap of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 42,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to September was a surplus of 139,900 tons [52][55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 120 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was 125 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3,200 tons to 108,800 tons. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,300 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,400 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was - $32.22/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $29/ton. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.075, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 2,413.75 yuan/ton. - Position Analysis: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is bearish in the short term [60][63][66][69].