聚烯烃月报：人民币汇率大幅升值，聚乙烯进口利润提升-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment is neutral. With the market starting to disclose the annual reports for the first quarter of 2026, the energy and chemical sector rebounded slightly. The overall profit of polyolefins decreased significantly, and the mid - stream inventory showed differentiation. The inventory of polyethylene traders decreased, while that of polypropylene traders fluctuated at a high level. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which increases the import profit of polyethylene and may lead to an increase in import volume, while the export of PP may be hindered. [16][17] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: The macro sentiment is neutral. The market starts to disclose the annual reports for the first quarter of 2026, and the energy and chemical sector rebounds slightly [16]. - Cost - end: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.02%, Brent crude oil fell by - 2.03%, coal prices remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol rose by 3.99%, ethylene increased by 5.38%, propylene decreased by - 4.90%, and propane decreased by - 1.83%. Oil prices rebounded at a low level, and under the background of weak supply and demand, the cost - end had a greater impact [16]. - Supply - end: The capacity utilization rate of PE was 82.27%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.36%, a year - on - year decrease of - 3.63%, and a decrease of - 13.00% compared with the five - year average. The capacity utilization rate of PP was 75.65%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.47%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.42%, and a decrease of - 11.98% compared with the five - year average. There were no new capacity plans for the polyolefin 2605 contract [16]. - Import and Export: In November, the domestic PE import was 1.0622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 9.99%. The domestic PP import in November was 0.1793 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 8.74% and a year - on - year decrease of - 8.74%. The export season arrived. In November, the PE export was 0.0858 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 38.74%. The PP export was 0.2241 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 36.59% [16]. - Demand - end: The downstream operating rate of PE was 41.15%, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.96% and a year - on - year decrease of - 1.18%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 53.24%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of - 1.33%. It was the seasonal off - season, and the overall operating rate had no highlights, but the BOPP demand was good [17]. - Inventory: The inventory of PE producers was 0.3707 million tons, a decrease of - 18.10% month - on - month and an increase of 22.50% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PE traders was 0.0276 million tons, a decrease of - 38.41% month - on - month and a decrease of - 15.14% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PP producers was 0.5333 million tons, a decrease of - 2.38% month - on - month and an increase of 30.39% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PP traders was 0.1872 million tons, a decrease of - 6.63% month - on - month and an increase of 44.33% compared with the same period last year; the PP port inventory was 0.0687 million tons, an increase of 5.21% month - on - month and an increase of 9.39% compared with the same period last year [17]. - Next - month Forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2605) is (6300 - 6700); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6300 - 6600) [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Go long on the spread between LL2605 and 2609 at low prices [18] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of LLDPE and PP futures contracts, as well as the price differences between different varieties and the import and export volume of PE and PP [34 - 74] 3. Cost - end - The coal - based production cost continued to decline. Multiple charts show the price trends of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, thermal coal, methanol, propane, LPG, etc., and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of related products [77 - 123] 4. Polyethylene Supply - end - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of different raw materials for PE production is presented, including oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE [126 - 129]. - Production Plan: There are multiple new production projects planned for domestic polyethylene in 2026. The total planned production capacity of un - put - into - production projects is 5.2 million tons [131]. - Capacity and Utilization Rate: Charts show the PE capacity, capacity growth rate, capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume [133 - 139] 5. Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Inventory: Charts show the total inventory, producer inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE [143 - 147]. - Import and Export: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import and export volume of PE [149 - 157] 6. Polyethylene Demand - end - Demand Proportion: The downstream and terminal demand proportions of polyethylene are presented, with packaging film having the highest proportion [161 - 163]. - Related Indicators: Multiple charts show the CPI, downstream demand cumulative year - on - year growth rate, downstream operating rate, inventory available days, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory of PE [165 - 179] 7. Polypropylene Supply - end - Raw Material Proportion: The proportion of different raw materials for PP production is presented, including oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, externally - sourced propylene - based, and methanol - based PP [182 - 185]. - Production Plan: There are multiple new production projects planned for domestic polypropylene in 2026. The total planned production capacity of un - put - into - production projects is 4.37 million tons [189]. - Capacity and Utilization Rate: Charts show the PP capacity, capacity growth rate, capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume [187 - 194] 8. Polypropylene Inventory & Import and Export - Inventory: Charts show the total inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory of PP [197 - 201]. - Export: Charts show the monthly and cumulative export volume of PP and the export destination proportion [202 - 209] 9. Polypropylene Demand - end - Demand Proportion: The downstream and terminal demand proportions of polypropylene are presented, with the拉丝 category having the highest proportion [213 - 215]. - Related Indicators: Multiple charts show the downstream operating rate, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory of PP [217 - 234]