财信证券宏观策略周报（1.5-1.9）：慢牛行情仍将延续，择机配置科技成长-20260104

Group 1 - The report predicts that the A-share bull market will continue in 2026, driven by resilient overseas economies, likely continued dollar liquidity easing, and domestic policies maintaining a "dual easing" tone, with technology growth remaining the long-term market focus [4][7][8] - During the New Year holiday, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.00%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.76%, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by technology and materials sectors [4][8] - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December, marking the first increase since April, driven by policy support and pre-holiday inventory buildup [8][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of service consumption policies, with the National Development and Reform Commission announcing a 2.95 billion yuan investment plan and 625 million yuan in special bonds to support consumption [9][10] - The real estate sector is expected to experience a significant divergence in policy expectations, with new housing sales projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11][12] - The public fund industry is expected to see a high-quality development trend, with new regulations aimed at reducing investor costs and promoting long-term holding of funds, potentially saving investors 51 billion yuan annually [12]