Soochow Securities·2026-01-04 13:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, highlighting strong growth potential in semiconductor equipment and humanoid robots [1][20]. Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditure and domestic equipment localization, with new order growth potentially exceeding 30% and reaching over 50% [2][18]. - The humanoid robot industry is approaching mass production, with key events such as the release of Tesla's V3 robot expected to catalyze order growth and market expansion [3][32]. - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to experience a seasonal surge in Q1, driven by policy support and increased project initiation, with a projected annual growth rate of over 30% for excavators [3][33]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise due to increased shipments of AI servers, necessitating automation in production processes [4][35]. - The gas turbine market is poised for growth as AI data centers expand, with domestic manufacturers likely to benefit from increased demand for reliable power solutions [8][31]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - Longxin's IPO plans indicate a total investment of 34.5 billion yuan, primarily for technology upgrades in memory chip production, signaling a robust growth trajectory for the sector [2]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach 495 billion yuan in 2024, with a localization rate expected to rise to 22% by 2025 [18][19]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is set for significant changes with the upcoming release of Tesla's V3 robot, which is expected to drive orders and market standardization [3][32]. - Key companies to watch include Hengli Hydraulic and Top Group, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in this sector [3]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is entering a recovery phase, with Q1 typically seeing increased activity due to favorable weather and policy support [3][33]. - Major players such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG are expected to lead this recovery, with projected sales growth driven by domestic and international demand [33]. Optical Modules - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly due to the rising shipments of AI servers, with automation becoming essential in production processes [4][35]. - Companies like Robotech and Aotewi are highlighted as key players in this space [4]. Gas Turbines - The expansion of AI data centers is driving demand for gas turbines, with domestic manufacturers like Jereh and Yingliu expected to capture significant market share [8][31]. - The gas turbine market is characterized by a shift towards domestic production, with companies forming partnerships with international leaders to enhance capabilities [8].