Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-04 13:31Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) shows increased gaming characteristics and is in a high - level oscillation state [1][4]. - For the 2602 contract, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and in the context of further relaxation of supply - demand and a continuous decline in the freight rate center, the bottom valuation of the 04 contract can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and arrange short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 314,000 TEU/week. Maersk added an extra ship in wk3, and COSCO's AEU3 voyages from wk5 to wk7 were delayed by one week. The shipping schedules in January became more even, with the market capacity from week 1 to 5 ranging between 308,000 and 323,000 TEU. The OA Alliance's capacity peak occurred in wk4 (144,200 TEU), and the PA Alliance's in wk3 (57,700 TEU). The Gemini Alliance and MSK had relatively stable capacity deployment [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 6 empty sailings and 4 undetermined ones, with an average weekly capacity of 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 4 undetermined voyages). Except for the GEMINI Alliance, other shipping companies have not released their Chinese New Year suspension plans [4]. - In terms of geopolitics, the Middle - East geopolitical situation did not significantly cool down during the New Year's Day holiday. In the demand aspect, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good in January, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume peak may appear around mid - January, then decline and drop more sharply from early February [5]. 3.2 Price - SCFIS Index: In wk1 (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), there were 17 departing vessels (318,000 TEU), of which 7 (129,000 TEU) were delayed from wk52. It is subjectively estimated that the SCFIS index on January 5 may be around 1860 points [16]. - Spot Freight Rates: The freight rate height of the 2602 contract: As MSC raises the freight rate by $300/FEU in the second half of the month, the current static FAK average in wk3 is around $2,860/FEU. The inflection point time: First, observe Maersk's cabin opening situation in wk4 next Tuesday, then observe the pricing strategies of the PA Alliance and OA Alliance for the second half of the month. The decline rate: After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be large [6][19]. 3.3 Demand Side - Asian exports to Europe: The container trade volume between Asia and Europe (North - West Europe + Mediterranean) has shown certain fluctuations from 2011 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the trade volume in January was 1,768,400 TEU, and in February was 1,114,400 TEU [31]. - Asian exports to North America: The container trade volume between Asia and North America also fluctuated from 2011 to 2025. In 2025, the trade volume in January was 2,118,800 TEU, showing an 8.2% year - on - year increase [34]. 3.4 Supply Side - Supply Chain Risk Events: Geopolitical situations are disturbing. There are risks of regional escalation in the Middle - East, and instability in Yemen. Although some shipping companies have made trial voyages through the Red Sea, it does not mean the full - scale resumption of normal operations on the Red Sea route [48][49]. - Shipping Schedules: The shipping capacity in January changed little, and the February schedule has some empty sailings and undetermined voyages [4][52]. - Turnover Efficiency: It includes aspects such as sailing speed, idle capacity, regional congestion, and congestion at major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [59][61][64]. - Static Capacity: In December, the top ten shipping companies received new ships of different sizes and deployed them on different routes. In the next three months, they are also expected to receive a number of new ships [77][80].