Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner with limited upside and downside space. The upward space of the ore price is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. The main factors to watch in the future are the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of hot metal production [11][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: In December, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 3,525.68 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 228.93 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In January, it is expected that the arrivals will continue to increase, but the shipments will decline month-on-month as it turns to the traditional off-season for mine shipments [11][13]. - Demand: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in December was 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. With the end of some blast furnace overhauls, the hot metal production may increase slightly [11][13]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were at a high level in the same period of history, while steel mills' imported ore inventories were at a low level in the same period, with some restocking demand [11][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Spreads: At the end of December, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 117 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 82 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 9.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 137 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -17.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - In - furnace Proportion and Scrap Steel: At the end of December, the pellet in - furnace proportion was 14.69%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore in - furnace proportion was 11.98%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The sinter in - furnace proportion was 73.33%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [25]. - Profit: At the end of December, the profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 351.56 million tons, an increase of 49.21 million tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1,356.04 million tons, an increase of 71.61 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 2,144.66 million tons, an increase of 165.29 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 6,941.26 million tons, an increase of 633.8 million tons, and the Brazilian ore port inventory was 5,669.56 million tons, a decrease of 317.47 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8,860.19 million tons, a decrease of 82.29 million tons [35][41][43]. 4. Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: In December, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 746.83 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 142.20 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 575.30 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.90 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 602.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.40 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 392.35 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.07 million tons [49][52][55]. - Arrivals and Imports: In December, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1,900.41 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 84.50 million tons [58]. - Domestic Mines: At the end of December, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 55.53%, a decrease of 5.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 43.39 million tons, a decrease of 4.09 million tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - Hot Metal Production: The estimated domestic hot metal production in December was 7,074.96 million tons, with a daily average of 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. At the end of December, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a decrease of 3.04 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - Ore Removal and Consumption: In December, the weekly average of 45 - port iron ore daily ore removal volume was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of December 31, the calculated basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 52.61 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.25% [74].
铁矿石月报 2026/01/04：上下空间有限，震荡运行为主-20260104
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-04 13:31