铜月报：多因素支撑，高位运行-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, China's refined copper production is expected to decline slightly, but consumption remains supported, with a tendency for supply to exceed demand. Overseas demand is expected to be slightly weak, while the US tariff expectation continues to push the spot price higher. At the macro - level, the marginal relaxation of US financial liquidity, moderate domestic policy stimulus, and the enhanced strategic resource value due to overseas geopolitical disturbances are still favorable factors. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain at a high level with a slowdown in the upward trend. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 92,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M copper is expected to be between 11,500 - 13,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or try to go long after a decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - Supply: Overseas copper mine supply has marginal disturbances, the tight supply pattern of copper mines remains unchanged, and the supply of blister copper is relatively loose. In December 2025, China's refined copper production rebounded, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January [9]. - Demand: In December 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined copper is estimated to decline. In January, the downstream start - up is expected to remain stable. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and the demand expectation is slightly weak [9]. - Import and Export: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. The price difference between US copper and LME copper weakened but remained positive [9]. - Inventory: In December 2025, the inventories of SHFE and COMEX increased, the LME inventory decreased, the bonded - area inventory remained stable, and the total inventory increased, but there are still structural problems. It is estimated that China's inventory will continue to accumulate in January [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Market Review: In December 2025, the copper price fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 12.4% and hit the 100,000 - yuan mark. The LME 3M copper contract rose 11.8%. The US dollar index weakened, and the offshore RMB broke through the 7 - yuan mark [17]. - Market Spreads: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. At the end of the month, the domestic copper price was stronger than the LME copper price. The COMEX - LME copper price difference fluctuated and narrowed, and the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the spread [19]. - Inventory and Basis: As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 840,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the end of November. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased. The LME market's Cash/3M strengthened, and the domestic basis weakened [22][25]. - Fund Sentiment: As of late December 2025, the CFTC fund position remained net long, with the net - long ratio rising to 22.6%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds remained relatively high, and the sentiment was positive [28]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Copper Mines: In November 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons. In October 2025, Peru's copper production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 248,000 tons. In December 2025, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply was slightly loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined, and the 2026 annual long - term contract benchmark price was set at 0 US dollars/ton [33][36]. - Refined Copper: In December 2025, the domestic blister copper processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of cold materials remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, strengthened. China's refined copper production increased significantly in December 2025, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January 2026 [39][42]. - Recycled Copper: In December 2025, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 4,300 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. The start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained weak [45]. 3.3.2 Demand - China: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.356 million tons, a significant year - on - year decline. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to December 2025 was about 16.29 million tons, a 4.3% year - on - year increase. The average start - up rate of copper products enterprises is expected to decline in December 2025 and remain stable in January 2026. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises weakened in December 2025, and the start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to rebound slightly in January 2026. The power investment decreased year - on - year in November 2025, and the new photovoltaic installation decreased year - on - year. The real - estate transaction data in December 2025 was weaker than the same period last year, and the automobile sales data was relatively strong [48][51][54]. - Overseas: In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was differentiated. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption increased slightly year - on - year in October 2025, and the consumption from January to October increased by about 5.1% [63]. 3.4 Macro Analysis - In November 2025, the US unemployment rate rose, and inflation data weakened. The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain loose. In December 2025, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US gradually stabilized, showing a relative divergence from the copper price trend [67][69].