锰硅月报：延续近期反弹趋势，注意短期市场情绪冲击-20260104

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the market showed a significant upward trend or rebound after a series of important macro - events. The overall market sentiment turned bullish, but there was a risk of short - term market sentiment shock due to the possible "flame - out" of previous sentiment "leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate [15][96]. - For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. However, these factors have mostly been priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by the direction of the black market and overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push issues on the manganese silicon side and supply contraction problems on the ferrosilicon side [15][96]. - In the context of the current bullish commodity sentiment, low port manganese ore inventory, and concentrated ownership of high - grade manganese ore, it is necessary to pay close attention to possible sudden events in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [14][20]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][25]. - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][30]. - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [14][44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year [14][59][62]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period [14][70]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 0.00%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [25]. - Cost: As of December 31, 2025, the price of South African ore was 35 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Australian ore was 41.7 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 1.7 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Gabonese ore was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month. The market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 110 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [27][30]. - Manganese Ore Import: In November 2025, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: As of December 31, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 439.58 tons, down 7.22 tons month - on - month [36]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in December 2025 was 14,700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56][59][62]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of December 31, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's perspective was 39.35 tons, up 0.75 tons month - on - month [70][73]. - Steel Mill Inventory: In December 2025, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level in historical statistics [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In December 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile rebound, rising 300 yuan/ton or 5.33% month - on - month. At the daily - line level, it continued the volatile rebound trend after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024 and was in a short - term upward cycle with no obvious position increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [95][101]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][106]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][112]. - Supply: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [95][117]. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [95][123][126]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.33 tons, up 0.03 tons month - on - month, remaining at a relatively neutral level in the same period [95][140]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [106]. - Cost: As of December 31, 2025, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of semi - coke small materials was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main - production - area electricity price was unchanged month - on - month. The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [109][112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [117]. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month