氧化铝月报：供给收缩预期提高，基本面拐点仍需观望-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment gradually resumed, and the resumption of production in the AXIS mining area is expected to cause the ore price to decline with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the import cost position of Guinea's ores. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting sector is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, increasing the market's expectation of the implementation of supply contraction policies in the future. However, the continuous rebound still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting sector, downward - moving cost support, and the delivery pressure of expired warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, as the cost - effectiveness of chasing long positions is not high. If there are no actual production cut actions, opportunities can be awaited to arrange short positions in the near - term contracts at high prices. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton, and key attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Futures Price: As of December 31, the alumina index increased by 0.58% to 2755 yuan/ton compared with the price on November 28. Multiple factors such as high production, high inventory, and falling ore prices drove the alumina futures price to decline rapidly at the beginning of December. However, at the end of December, the National Development and Reform Commission's article increased the market's expectation of supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in the futures price. For the continuous rebound of alumina, attention should be paid to the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the launch of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. In terms of basis, the spot changed from premium to discount in December, and as of December 31, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 44 yuan/ton compared with the AO2602 contract price. The policy expectation drove the futures price to strengthen. In terms of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts, it continued to widen in December, reaching 126 yuan/ton as of December 31 [12]. - Spot Price: Alumina production remained at a high level within the month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on the spot price. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the oversupply situation is expected to be difficult to reverse. As of January 4, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2745 yuan/ton, 2790 yuan/ton, 2690 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton, 2665 yuan/ton, and 2960 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant declines compared with the beginning of December [12]. - Inventory: As of December 26, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 22.9 tons to 517.1 tons compared with the beginning of November. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 2.7 tons, 1 ton, 4.9 tons, and decreased by 2.9 tons respectively. As of December 31, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10.15 tons to 15.69 tons compared with the beginning of December, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse decreased by 6.75 tons to 19.34 tons [12]. - Mineral End: After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the AXIS mining area, which had been shut down since May this year, resumed production, further exacerbating the bauxite oversupply situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. According to SMM research, the long - term contract price of a large - scale mine in Guinea in the first quarter of 2026 was reduced by 7.5 dollars to 66.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous quarter. Attention should be paid to the support at the CIF price of 60 dollars/ton for Guinea's bauxite [13]. - Supply Side: In November 2025, alumina production was 784 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19%. According to the overseas alumina enterprise production plans, 200 tons and 100 tons will be put into production in the first and second quarters of next year respectively, with the increments mainly from Indonesia and Vietnam. The long - term overseas production plan is still 1560 tons, but the overall construction progress is slow [13]. - Import and Export: In November 2025, the net import of alumina was 6.44 tons. The opening of the previous import window continued to drive the monthly net import. The import volume increased from 19 tons last month to 23 tons, and the export volume decreased from 18 tons to 17 tons. The total net export in the first eleven months of 2025 was 137 tons [13]. - Demand Side: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4464 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared with the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot End - Spot Price: Alumina production remained at a high level within the month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on the spot price. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the oversupply situation is expected to be difficult to reverse. As of January 4, 2026, the spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang were 2745 yuan/ton, 2790 yuan/ton, 2690 yuan/ton, 2600 yuan/ton, 2665 yuan/ton, and 2960 yuan/ton respectively, showing significant declines compared with the beginning of December [20]. - Futures Price: As of December 31, the alumina index increased by 0.58% to 2755 yuan/ton compared with the price on November 28. Multiple factors such as high production, high inventory, and falling ore prices drove the alumina futures price to decline rapidly at the beginning of December. However, at the end of December, the National Development and Reform Commission's article increased the market's expectation of supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in the futures price. For the continuous rebound of alumina, attention should be paid to the implementation of strong supply - side contraction policies, the launch of bauxite price - support policies by the Guinea government, and the full digestion of expired warehouse receipts. In terms of basis, the spot changed from premium to discount in December, and as of December 31, the Shandong spot price was at a discount of 44 yuan/ton compared with the AO2602 contract price. The policy expectation drove the futures price to strengthen. In terms of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts, it continued to widen in December, reaching 126 yuan/ton as of December 31 [23]. 3.3 Raw Material End - Bauxite Price: In December, the domestic ore prices in various regions remained stable. As of December 31, the CIF price of Guinea decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 66 dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 67 dollars/ton. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and the AXIS mining area, which had been shut down since May this year, resumed production, further exacerbating the bauxite oversupply situation. Coupled with the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline with fluctuations. According to SMM research, the long - term contract price of a large - scale mine in Guinea in the first quarter of 2026 was reduced by 7.5 dollars to 66.5 dollars/ton compared with the previous quarter. Attention should be paid to the support at the CIF price of 60 dollars/ton for Guinea's bauxite [28]. - Bauxite Production and Import: In November 2025, China's bauxite production was 469.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 5521 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. Affected by environmental protection policies, the domestic bauxite production decreased month by month. In November 2025, the bauxite import was 1511 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.34% and a month - on - month increase of 9.76%. The total import in the first eleven months of 2025 was 18651 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.44% [30][32]. - Guinea Bauxite Import: In November 2025, China imported 1071 tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 33.84% and a month - on - month increase of 19%. The cumulative import from Guinea in the first eleven months of 2025 was 13813 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.01%. The shipment recovered after the rainy season [35]. - Bauxite Port Inventory: As of December 31, 2025, the bauxite shipment volume of major countries around the world rebounded to the highest level of the year. The latest data of China's bauxite port inventory was 2602 tons, with a slight decrease in inventory but still abundant reserves. In November, China's bauxite inventory increased by 78 tons, reaching a total of 5329 tons, still at a high level in the past five years, and enterprises had sufficient ore inventory. In key regions, the bauxite inventory in Shanxi decreased by 27 tons in November, and the inventory in Henan decreased by 47 tons. The inventory increase mainly came from Shandong [38][40]. 3.4 Supply Side - Alumina Production: In November 2025, alumina production was 784 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The cumulative production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 8264 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% [44]. - New Alumina Production Capacity in 2026: The total new production capacity in China in 2026 is expected to be 1340 tons, with 580 tons in the first quarter, 240 tons in the second quarter, 120 tons in the third quarter, and 400 tons in the fourth quarter [46]. - Overseas Alumina Production Plan: According to the overseas alumina enterprise production plans, 200 tons and 100 tons will be put into production in the first and second quarters of next year respectively, with the increments mainly from Indonesia and Vietnam. The long - term overseas production plan is still 1560 tons, but the overall construction progress is slow [47]. - Alumina Production Profit: As of December 31, the alumina spot price continued to decline, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. However, due to the simultaneous decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and bauxite at the cost end, alumina plants did not experience deep losses. According to the alumina spot price on December 31, the current production profit in Guangxi could reach 120 yuan/ton; relying on coastal advantages and low liquid caustic soda prices, the profits of using Australian ore and Guinea ore in Shandong were - 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The transportation cost of imported ore from ports for inland alumina plants was about 100 yuan/ton. After calculation, using Guinea ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses of 150 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively [49]. 3.5 Import and Export - Alumina Import and Export Data: In November 2025, the net import of alumina was 6.44 tons. The opening of the previous import window continued to drive the monthly net import. The import volume increased from 19 tons last month to 23 tons, and the export volume decreased from 18 tons to 17 tons. The total net export in the first eleven months of 2025 was 137 tons [53]. - Alumina Import Profit and Loss: As of December 31, the FOB price of Australia decreased by 4 dollars/ton to 308 dollars/ton compared with the end of November, and the import profit and loss was - 83 yuan/ton. The current import window was closed [56]. 3.6 Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In November 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. The total production in the first eleven months of 2025 was 4055 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.67% [61]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Operating Capacity and Rate: In November 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4464 tons, an increase of 8 tons compared with the previous month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in November decreased by 0.25% to 97.22% [64]. - Alumina Balance Sheet: The report provides the alumina balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on supply, demand, import, and export [65]. 3.7 Inventory - Alumina Social Inventory: As of December 26, the total social inventory of alumina increased by 22.9 tons to 517.1 tons compared with the beginning of November. Among them, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 2.7 tons, 1 ton, 4.9 tons, and decreased by 2.9 tons respectively [70]. - Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipt and Delivery Warehouse Inventory: As of December 31, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10.15 tons to 15.69 tons compared with the beginning of December, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse decreased by 6.75 tons to 19.34 tons [72].