锡月报：短期宏观氛围积极，预计锡价震荡运行-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, tin prices were high and strong. In terms of supply, the operation of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan remained stable at a high level. In terms of demand, the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by new - energy vehicles and AI servers. In the spot market, downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy with weak purchasing willingness. Tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. High prices significantly inhibited tin demand, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate and weaken in the future [11][13] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and its concentrates was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. The imports from Myanmar (the largest source) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (the second - largest source) changed differently [12] - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, advanced, and the export volume increased significantly. However, the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises in Yunnan still existed, and the short - term operating rate remained stable with limited upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to the significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin remained at a low level. Overall, it is difficult to further improve the operating level of smelters in the short term [12] - Demand side: At the end of the year, the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season, but the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by new - energy vehicles and AI servers. In November, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the现货 market, downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, resulting in a three - week increase in tin inventory. As of December 26, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,367 tons, an increase of 186 tons from the previous Friday [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) [19][20] 3.3 Cost Side - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [24][26] 3.4 Supply Side - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [30][32][35] 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales rebounded slightly, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. The report also presented data graphs of domestic computer production, smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell production, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic tin apparent consumption [43][44][46] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including China's social inventory and LME inventory [60]