铂族金属月报：维持观望，等待价格回调企稳-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a wait - and - see stance, waiting for price pullbacks to stabilize [1] 2. Report's Core View - Macro and industrial factors jointly drove strong price increases in platinum and palladium, but prices fluctuated significantly and fell sharply in the last week of December. In the first quarter of this year, the overseas macro - environment will have a negative impact on the precious metals sector. It is expected that after further price declines, the volatility of platinum - group metals will significantly narrow. Currently, it is recommended to temporarily observe platinum and palladium strategies [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Since the listing of domestic platinum - group metals, they have generally shown a trend of rising first and then falling. From November 27th to December 31st, the price of the platinum main contract rose 19.56% to 527.25 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract price rose 12.79% to 425.2 yuan/gram [10] - In December, the NYMEX platinum main contract price rose 38.85% to $2220 per ounce, and the palladium main contract price rose 15.09% to $1685.5 per ounce. However, in the last week of December, platinum and palladium prices fell 4.31% and 14.18% respectively [9] - The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion in December, along with potential future policy directions, drove up precious metal prices. The EU's decision to abandon the internal combustion engine vehicle ban boosted the demand outlook for catalysts, driving up platinum and palladium prices. But due to weak demand and relatively weak reserve and investment attributes, prices fell after the trading sentiment subsided [9] 3.2 Market Review - Platinum Price: The platinum price rose 38.85% to $2220 per ounce this month, and the total position increased from 83,700 lots in the week of November 25th to 97,000 lots in the week of December 16th [17] - Palladium Price: The palladium price rose 15.09% to $1685.5 per ounce this month, and the total position increased from 19,100 lots in the week of November 25th to 22,000 lots in the week of December 16th [18] - Domestic Platinum Price and Spread: As of December 31st, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 511.5 yuan/gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the premium of domestic platinum significantly recovered [21] - Lease Rate: As of December 31st, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum spot was 19.67%, and that of palladium was 6.50%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past five years [22] - Platinum CFTC Net Position: In the week of December 16th, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased from 13,800 lots to 15,400 lots [25] - Palladium CFTC Net Position: The net position of palladium managed funds turned from short to long, with a current net long position of 293 lots [28] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - Platinum ETF Holdings: From December 1st to 30th, the total overseas platinum ETF holdings increased from 75.35 tons to 76.59 tons [39] - Palladium ETF Holdings: From December 1st to 30th, the total overseas palladium ETF holdings increased from 14.74 tons to 15.41 tons [42] - Platinum Inventory: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 30th, the CME platinum inventory was 20.12 tons [46] - Palladium Inventory: The CME palladium inventory continued to increase, reaching 6.53 tons as of December 30th [51] 3.4 Supply and Demand - Platinum Mining: The predicted platinum production of the top 15 global mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons. The total annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in platinum supply at the mine end [57] - Palladium Mining: The total production of the top 15 global palladium mines in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons. In 2025, the production of some mines will decline, but the production of Impala in South Africa will increase by 12%. Overall, the annual production of the top 15 mines will slightly contract, decreasing by 0.86% to 165.78 tons [60] - China's Platinum Imports: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [63] - China's Palladium Imports: The cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [66] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: The report presents various monthly spreads of NYMEX platinum, such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads [88][83] - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: The report shows various monthly spreads of NYMEX palladium, including 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads [95][91] - London Market Spot and NYMEX Spread: The report provides the spreads between the London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, as well as the spreads between the London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price [97]