不锈钢月报：政策预期偏强，原料价格出现反弹-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of December, driven by the news of Indonesia's RKAB plan in 2026 setting a nickel ore quota of about 250 million tons, nickel prices led stainless steel prices to continue rising. The limited arrival of goods at steel mills and the increasing replenishment demand of traders led to a further decline in inventory. Supported by the expected Indonesian policy, the price of ferronickel remained firm, and the spot transaction price rebounded to 920 - 930 yuan per nickel. However, the spot market showed a differentiated pattern of "active trading but weak end - users". Affected by factors such as seasonal lack of orders and pressure on capital repatriation, end - users were indifferent to price fluctuations. In the short term, the improvement in policy expectations promoted the rise of raw material prices and accelerated inventory reduction, providing fundamental support for the current market. If the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, the price may rise further. It is recommended to consider laying out long positions on dips and closely monitor the actual implementation of policies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Monthly Points Summary: On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48%. In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in December, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93%. In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [11]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis was - 140 yuan per ton, the production profit was 304,860 tons, the supply was - 165, the demand was 314,910 tons, and the inventory was 1.0051 million tons. The long - short scores were all neutral. The short - term market was supported by policy expectations, and if the nickel ore supply quota was tightened, prices might rise further. It was recommended to consider long positions on dips and monitor policy implementation [12]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - On December 31st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong was 915 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,800 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,090 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [16]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 290 yuan (- 79) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about - 140 yuan (- 129) higher than the main contract. The open interest on the disk was 191,862 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2.68% [19]. - The spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 2 was - 90 (- 60), and the spread between continuous contract 1 and continuous contract 3 was - 155 (- 65) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - In December, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production plan was 1.4459 million tons. In November, the crude steel output was 3.0486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to November was 6.48% [26]. - In November, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4062 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%; in November, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 688,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76% [29]. - In November, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 87,300 tons in November, a month - on - month decrease of 15.56% [32]. - In November, the net export volume of stainless steel was 293,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.14%; the cumulative net export from January to November was 3.1719 million tons, a 12.64% increase compared with the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 787.0174 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.80%; in November, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 67.1974 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.93% [39]. - In November, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 4%, 5.6%, - 23.4%, and 5.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in November was 23.6% [42]. - In November, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 132,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 16.81% and a year - on - year increase of 3.12%; the automobile sales volume in November was 3.429 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.22% and a year - on - year increase of 3.40% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0051 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 47,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,036 tons [49]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel last week were 153,300 tons, 631,700 tons, and 220,200 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.98% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63%, and the unloading volume was 102,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.85% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - In November, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.66%; the current nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 54.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 13.7647 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [56]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% ferronickel in Shandong last week was 925 yuan per nickel, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per nickel, and iron plants in Fujian were currently losing 47 yuan per nickel [59]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52.5 yuan per dry ton, with no week - on - week change; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,100 yuan per 50 - base ton, with no week - on - week change. In November, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 881,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.84% [62]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line was - 165 yuan per ton, and the profit margin reached - 1.24% [65].