橡胶：转向谨慎思路

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rubber market should adopt a cautious approach. The demand in December is relatively high due to winter storage, but the marginal supply benefits are decreasing. According to seasonal patterns, rubber prices are likely to reach a phased high between January and February. The high premium of RU over NR increases the price risk of RU [10][12]. - The market logic shows that the bulls are mainly driven by China's winter storage expectations and positive policy expectations, while the bears are mainly concerned about the current weak demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies. The export of rubber from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire has increased [15]. - The EU's anti - deforestation law (EUDR) has been postponed, which has a short - term negative impact on demand. The marginal impact of different postponement announcements varies [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Demand: The full - steel tire production start - up rate of tire factories is 59.55% (-2.40%), with normal demand for full - steel tires. The export expectations of semi - steel and full - steel tires to Europe are weakening. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 69.83 (1.52) million tons [15]. - Supply: The rainy season in Thailand has basically ended. There are still significant differences in the medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 million tons. The market expects subsequent rubber storage plans [15]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a cautious approach and temporarily observe. Consider the strategy of going long on the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 for potential band trading opportunities when the spread is above 3250 [15][17]. 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [50]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to decline in the first half of the year. The overseas demand expectations for rubber are marginally weakening, while China's demand is stable. The comparison data between rubber and other commodities are basically normal, with no special values [24][29][35]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - The comparison data between rubber and other commodities such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities are basically normal, with no special values [39][42][46]. 3.5 Demand End - The start - up rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires show no special values. The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is highly prosperous but expected to decline slightly in the future [55][58][61]. 3.6 Supply End - Most of the rubber import data sources are no longer updated after 2021, reducing the analyzability of imports. The supply data of major rubber - producing countries are basically normal, with no special values [65][69][83]. - In November 2025, the rubber production was 1.1677 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.40% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.49%. The export was 0.8696 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.42% and a month - on - month increase of 0.27% [100][101]. 3.7 Rubber - Related Industry Chain (Butadiene and Ethylene) - Butadiene: In 2025, new butadiene production capacity was put into operation, increasing the supply expectation and decreasing the processing profit expectation. The import expectation is high, weakening the price. In the 14th Five - Year Plan period (2026 - 2030), the butadiene production capacity is expected to increase passively with the expansion of refining and chemical projects. The new production capacity growth rate in 2026 is lower than that in 2025, but the supply is still under pressure [120][122][125]. - Ethylene: During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the Chinese ethylene industry will enter a new round of capacity expansion cycle. It is expected that the total capacity will reach 8500 - 9000 million tons/year by 2030, maintaining the world's first position [122].