基本金属行业周报：地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑贵金属价格-20260104

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]