GF SECURITIES·2026-01-04 14:05Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the formal implementation of the EU carbon tariff in 2026, which is expected to boost demand for China's circular economy and green energy industries. The carbon price in the EU is currently 80-90 euros per ton, significantly higher than China's current carbon price, which will increase export costs for Chinese companies. Companies can reduce carbon emissions through green energy and recycled resources [7][11] - There is a notable acceleration in local government debt reduction efforts, with several companies in the environmental sector announcing debt recovery measures. This includes one-time payments for historical receivables and debt restructuring, which are expected to improve cash flow for many companies [7][30] - High dividend assets in the environmental sector remain attractive, with companies like Guangda Environment and Huanlan Environment showing significant stock price increases in 2025. The expectation of continued dividend growth is supported by reduced capital expenditure needs due to fewer new project orders [7][30] Summary by Sections 1. Receivables Recovery Announcements - Numerous announcements regarding receivables recovery from listed companies indicate a trend towards debt reduction in the industry. For instance, Chuangye Environmental has signed agreements to improve cash flow by adjusting payment cycles for wastewater treatment fees [15][16] - Mengcao Ecology has announced the termination and debt restructuring of four PPP projects, expecting to recover approximately 1 billion yuan in receivables, which will enhance cash flow and fund utilization efficiency [23][24] 2. Carbon Tariff Implementation - The EU carbon tariff will officially be implemented in 2026, impacting various industries including cement, steel, and electricity. This is expected to expand to additional sectors by 2027, influencing downstream products and commodities [7][11] 3. Policy Review and Trends - The report reviews policies aimed at resolving local government debts and emphasizes the importance of addressing overdue payments to enterprises. Recent policies have allocated special bond quotas to address these issues [27][28][29] 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant receivables from government projects, as they are likely to see improved market valuations and profit recovery. Key companies to watch include Chengfa Environment, Wuhan Holdings, and others in the solid waste and water treatment sectors [30]