周观：公募基金销售新规正式稿落地，债市修复可期（2025年第51期）

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the end of 2025 was volatile and weak, mainly affected by year - end institutional behavior changes and strong December PMI data. The official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market, and the bond market at the beginning of 2026 is likely to recover [13][16]. - In 2026 Q1, the bond market has both risks and opportunities. At the beginning of 2026, the possibility of a significant tightening of funds similar to that in early 2025 is small. Higher interest rates are beneficial for allocation - type institutions, while trading - type institutions can focus on capital interest rates and potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [17]. - The "grand narrative" pricing and cyclical factors of gold are positive in 2026, and gold is expected to play an important role in different asset portfolios. The long - term value of the RMB is underestimated, but in the medium - term, the supporting role of macro - policies during the transformation from exogenous to endogenous growth needs to be considered [20]. - The latest PMI and EIA data in the US show increased inflationary pressure and slowed economic expansion momentum. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has become more cautious. There are significant policy differences within the Fed, and the monetary policy path requires more data for confirmation [21]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - Impact of PMI and New Fund Sales Regulations on the Bond Market: From December 26 to 31, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose 1.45bp from 1.8355% to 1.85%. On December 31, the release of PMI data initially suppressed the bond market sentiment, and the official draft of the new regulations on public fund sales had limited impact on the bond market that day [11][12]. - Analysis of US Economic Data and Bond Yields: The US December PMI initial values were all lower than expected, EIA inventory data changed, and the housing and labor markets showed mixed signals. The Fed's policy differences were significant, and the short - term interest - rate cut faced resistance [21][22][32]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries - Liquidity Tracking: From December 29 to 31, 2025, the net investment in the open market was 117.1 billion yuan. The money market interest rates and bond yields showed certain changes [36][41]. - Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking: Steel prices generally rose, LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased across the board. Overseas, the US stock and bond markets, and commodity prices also had corresponding fluctuations [59]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - Primary Market Issuance Overview: From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, 9 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 26 billion yuan, including 11.5 billion yuan in refinancing bonds and 14.5 billion yuan in new special bonds. The net financing amount was 17.449 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive projects [84]. - Secondary Market Overview: The local bond stock was 54.61 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 133.992 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.25%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Sichuan, and Zhejiang, and the top three active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [97]. - This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan: The issuance plans for Shandong and Zhejiang provinces from January 5 to 9, 2026, were provided [103]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - Primary Market Issuance Overview: A total of 81 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 74.42 billion yuan, a total repayment of 136.119 billion yuan, and a net financing of - 61.7 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 8.818 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was - 52.882 billion yuan [104][105]. - Issuance Interest Rates: The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds showed different degrees of change [118]. - Secondary Market Transaction Overview: The total trading volume of credit bonds was 242.219 billion yuan, with short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes having relatively large trading volumes [119]. - Yield to Maturity: The yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [121][123][125]. - Credit Spreads: The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different degrees of change, with the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widening [128][131][134]. - Grade Spreads: The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [135][141][142]. - Trading Activity: The industrial sector had the largest trading volume of bonds, reaching 152.732 billion yuan. The top five most actively traded bonds in each category were listed [147]. - Subject Rating Changes: The subject ratings of several companies were upgraded, including Yichun Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., and Suining Tianyi Investment Group Co., Ltd. [149].