转债市场周报：春躁期间转债估值仍有提升空间-20260104

Core Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to see a slight increase in valuation during the spring season due to strong expectations for underlying stocks and seasonal effects [2][16] - The China Convertible Bond Index reached a new high of 496 points since July 2015, indicating a positive trend in the market despite a decrease in ETF shares [2][16] - The average conversion premium for convertible bonds has increased, reflecting a shift from passive to active investment strategies as investors selectively identify opportunities [2][16] Market Performance - The convertible bond market saw a decline in most individual bonds, with the China Convertible Bond Index down by 0.27% and an average price drop of 0.50% [1][7] - The average parity price decreased by 0.75%, while the overall market conversion premium increased by 0.74% compared to the previous week [1][7] - Specific bonds such as Tianchuang, Maolai, Libo, Hongwei, and Hongtu showed significant gains, while others like Haohan, Jiamei, Huayi, and Kaisheng experienced notable declines [1][11] Sector Analysis - In the stock market, sectors such as commercial aerospace and precision optics performed well, while the electric power sector faced significant adjustments due to lower-than-expected long-term electricity prices [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the bond market was weak, influenced by factors such as the end-of-year financial assessments and a general decline in market activity [8][14] - The average implied volatility for convertible bonds stands at 45.91%, indicating a high level of market uncertainty [17][22] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on convertible bonds with strong underlying stock performance and consider participating in bonds nearing maturity [2][16] - The report suggests targeting sectors with high earnings elasticity, such as lithium battery materials, semiconductor equipment, and power semiconductors, which are expected to benefit from increased demand [2][16] - For absolute return strategies, it is recommended to look at industry leaders with valuations at historical lows, particularly in sectors like livestock farming and utilities [2][16]