固定收益周报：重点转至政府债发行-20260104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of observation has shifted to the government bond issuance in January 2026. The government bond issuance in January 2026 is in line with expectations. The long - end bonds are at the upper limit of the expected range and are worth participating in. For equities, the style is generally balanced with growth slightly dominant before the significant increase in government bond issuance. The report recommends a portfolio of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), the China Securities 1000 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [2][8][21] - In the deleveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - Liability Side: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - economy sector was 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), in line with expectations. It is expected to decline to around 8.3% in December 2025, lower than the 8.8% at the end of 2024, consistent with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio. The government debt growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December 2025 from 13.1% at the end of November 2025. The central bank's stance on stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and the quantitative fiscal targets are awaited from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16][17] - Monetary Policy: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield rose to 1.34% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut is expected in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points. The spreads between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds and between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds are expected to be in the range of 20 - 50 basis points, and the future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][17] - Asset Side: In November 2025, the physical volume data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level compared to October. The full - year real economic growth target for 2025 was set at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Macroeconomic Background: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. Subsequently, China's profit cycle has entered a state of narrow - range oscillation at a low level. The government's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, having the financial sector benefit the real economy, and ensuring that housing is for living in rather than speculation are still in effect, and the deleveraging on the liability side has limited room for further contraction. If the valuation of the technology sector in the US is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China, and attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel. The risk appetite may also oscillate within a certain range [6][19] - Market Performance: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, resulting in a double - kill of stocks and bonds, with the growth style still dominant. The yields of both long - and short - term bonds rose, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.85%, the one - year Treasury bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 1.34%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield rose by 4 basis points to 2.27%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.03 pct last week but has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 5.34 pct since its establishment in July 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300 Index) [7][20] 3.3 Industry Recommendations - Industry Performance Review: This week, the A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, automobiles, and machinery and equipment had the largest increases, with weekly changes of 3.9%, 3.1%, 2.1%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. Public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines, with weekly changes of - 2.7%, - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.1%, and - 1.8% respectively [26][27] - Industry Crowding and Trading Volume: As of December 31, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, and computers, with values of 15.5%, 9.4%, 8.9%, 8%, and 6.8% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were media, machinery and equipment, household appliances, computers, and national defense and military industry. The trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded this week. Media, petroleum and petrochemicals, computers, beauty care, and national defense and military industry had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [28][30] - Industry Valuation and Earnings: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, machinery and equipment, and automobiles had the largest increases, while public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines. Industries with high full - year 2024 profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to historical levels include banking, insurance, coal, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [34][35] - Industry Prosperity: Externally, there was a marginal decline in demand. The global manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 in December. Internally, the second - hand housing price remained flat in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a fluctuating upward trend from May to December 2025 [39] - Public Fund Market Review: In the fifth week of December (December 29 - 31), most actively managed public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300 Index. As of December 31, the net asset value of actively managed public equity funds was 3.95 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [52] - Industry Recommendations: In the deleveraging cycle, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [55]