GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-04 14:12Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is recommended to adopt a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation, emphasizing the technology mainline while taking into account pro - cyclical and large - finance sectors. For equity - hybrid funds, emerging technology remains the mainline in 2026, with a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors and continued optimism about large - finance. For bond funds, the pressure in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively limited, with a "weak - first - then - strong" rhythm [1][4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review A - Share Market - The A - share market was volatile and structurally differentiated. The petrochemical, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index had an 11 - day consecutive rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% to 13525.02 points. Among the major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.47%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.12%. The total trading volume of the two A - share markets was 6.33 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by about 163.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the industry aspect, 12 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, and 19 fell. The top - performing industries were petrochemical, national defense and military industry, media, automobile, and machinery and equipment, rising 3.92%, 3.05%, 2.13%, 1.44%, and 1.32% respectively; the bottom - performing industries were public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance, falling 2.72%, 2.26%, 2.18%, 2.06%, and 1.84% respectively [6]. Bond Market - The bond market declined, with both short - and long - term interest rates rising. The central bank's net open - market operation injection of 1.17 trillion yuan to maintain cross - year liquidity was offset by high cross - year capital demand, pushing up capital interest rates. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 5BP to 1.34%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1BP to 1.85%; the 1 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 1.55%, and the 10 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 2%. In the credit bond market, the grade spread widened, and the term spread was differentiated. The AAA - rated corporate bond yield rose 1BP, the AA - rated corporate bond yield rose 2BP, and the urban investment bond yield rose 1BP. The ChinaBond Total Net Price Index fell 0.23%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.31%, the ChinaBond Financial Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.12%, and the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.04%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.27% [7]. Global Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with oil prices rising and gold prices falling. The US stock market declined due to reduced interest - rate cut expectations and increased concerns about AI valuation bubbles. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.33%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.03%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.52%. European stock markets generally rose, with the French CAC40 Index rising 1.13%, the German DAX Index rising 0.82%, and the British FTSE 100 Index rising 0.82%. The Asia - Pacific markets were also differentiated, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 0.81%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 2.78%, the South Korean Composite Index rising 4.36%, and the Hang Seng Index rising 2.01%. The US Dollar Index rose 0.43%. In the commodity market, global oil prices rose, and the precious metal market experienced a sharp correction after the CME Group raised trading margins, with the precious metal index falling 5.20%, COMEX gold falling 4.63%, and COMEX silver falling 6.39% [8]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - Stock - type funds fell 0.45%, with index stock - type funds falling 0.38% and active stock open - type funds falling 0.76%. Active hybrid open - type funds fell 0.48%. Funds heavily invested in humanoid robots and commercial aerospace sectors performed well. Among index funds, aerospace, robot, and media theme funds were among the top performers [10]. - Bond - type funds fell 0.06%. Partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity allocations in non - ferrous metals, TMT, or military industries performed well. The annualized yield of money market funds was 1.25%. Among QDII funds, equity QDII funds fell 0.68%, with funds heavily invested in Asia - Pacific technology sectors and crude - oil theme funds performing better. QDII bond - type funds rose 0.04%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds fell 3.18%, and commodity - type funds fell 2.76% [10][11][12]. 3. Future Investment Strategies Macroeconomy - The macro policy in 2026 will be more proactive and front - loaded. The new local government debt quota for 2026 has been pre - allocated. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the list of the first - batch of "two major" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and will accelerate the allocation and use of funds. The first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in has been pre - allocated [13]. Stock Market - The Chinese stock market is expected to cross and stabilize at important levels. Emerging technology remains the mainline, and there is a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors. Large - finance is still favored. Recommended sectors include technology growth (such as Hong Kong - listed internet, media, computer, and computing power, as well as globally competitive manufacturing going overseas in power equipment and machinery), large - finance (securities and insurance), and pro - cyclical sectors (consumer stocks in food and beverages, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, hotels, and tourism services, as well as cyclical sectors like non - ferrous metals and chemicals) [14][15]. Bond Market - In the first quarter of 2026, the bond market's core concerns are policy expectations and bond issuance rhythm. The government bond issuance progress may be slower than in 2025, with the net financing in the first quarter accounting for about 25% of the whole year. The bond market may be under pressure due to the potential spring rally in the stock market. The probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut is higher than an interest - rate cut. In 2026, there will be new features in the bond market, such as more timely support from MLF, repurchase, and Treasury bond trading, possible lower funds volatility and lower certificate - of - deposit interest rates, a possible change in the bond - market configuration power around the Spring Festival, and a lower and more short - term impact of equity and commodity markets on the bond market, with a possibility of "double - bull" in stocks and bonds [15][16]. Fund Investment - For equity - hybrid funds, a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation is recommended. Long - term attention should be paid to technology - themed funds, and products mainly investing in pro - cyclical and financial sectors should also be considered. For bond funds, given the expected volatility in early 2026, interest - rate bond funds with flexible duration adjustments or products heavily invested in high - liquidity credit bonds are recommended. Money market funds have no trend - based investment opportunities, and gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated for long - term and hedging investments [17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments Impact of New Fund Fee Regulations on Bond Funds - The new regulations partially exempt the redemption fees of bond funds and index funds. For individual investors holding index funds and bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors holding bond funds for more than 30 days, the fund managers can negotiate the redemption fee standards. The transition period for non - compliant existing funds is set at 12 months. Short - term bond funds may face challenges as the exemption threshold for institutional investors is raised, and funds may flow to money market funds or bond ETFs. Bond ETFs may expand in scale but shorten their duration [18][19]. Total Public - Offering Fund Assets Exceed 37 Trillion Yuan - As of the end of November 2025, the total net asset value of public - offering funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan for the first time, with continuous growth since the end of April. Compared with the end of October, the scale of bond funds, money market funds, FOF, and other funds increased, while the scale of stock funds and hybrid funds decreased. However, investors' subscriptions for equity - type funds were still active, and equity - type funds were the main focus of public - offering institutions in November [20][21]. New Fund Launches Last Week - A total of 33 new funds were established last week, including 12 passive index funds, 7 enhanced index funds, 6 partial - stock hybrid funds, 3 hybrid bond - type secondary funds, 2 ordinary stock funds, 2 hybrid FOFs, and 1 passive index bond fund. The average subscription period was about 15 days, and the average raised share was 361 million shares, with a total of 11.916 billion shares [22]. Fund Dividends Next Week - There will be 30 fund share ex - rights registrations next week. The most notable is the Zhongjin Shanjiao Group Expressway REIT, which will distribute a dividend of 1.24 yuan per 10 shares [23].