钢材月报：短期驱动不足，延续稳中求进基调-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, the steel industry remained in a weak pattern with limited profit margins, supply contraction, weak demand, and eased inventory pressure. Although there was no strong policy stimulus, the combination of policies provided a clear framework for the economy in 2026, and the steel industry's fundamentals were expected to gradually improve at a low level [11][12][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: The steel mills' profit levels were still low, and the overall profit margins were continuously limited. The industry maintained a weak valuation state [11]. - Supply: In December 2025, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased year-on-year. The daily average pig iron production further declined, and the supply continued to shrink, with the decline in building materials production being more obvious [11]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased year-on-year. The demand for rebar was dragged down by the sluggish real estate investment, while the demand for hot-rolled coils was relatively stable. Export demand was neutral to strong, supporting the demand for plates. Policy changes in consumer subsidies were expected to have a marginal impact on the demand for home appliances and related plates [11]. - Inventory: As of the end of December 2025, the inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased year-on-year. The inventory of building materials was smoothly destocked, while the decline in plate inventory was limited [11]. - Summary: Macro - policies provided support for manufacturing and infrastructure, but the demand related to real estate was difficult to significantly improve. The steel demand had a basis for marginal stabilization, and the industry's fundamentals were expected to gradually improve [11][12][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts showed the price trends, basis, price spreads of different steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc.) in different regions and contracts, as well as the price differences between different regions and countries [25][27][30]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: The charts presented the disk profits, gross profits per ton of different steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc.), and the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces [80][83][85]. - Inventory: The inventory data and trends of rebar (total inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, etc.) and hot - rolled coils (total inventory, social inventory, factory inventory, etc.) were shown through charts [92][95][106]. 4. Cost End - The cost - related charts included the ratio of steel to ore, the ratio of steel to coke, daily average pig iron production, billet prices, scrap steel prices, and scrap steel consumption [112][115][124]. 5. Supply End - The production, production capacity utilization, and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils were presented through charts [133][135][138]. 6. Demand and Import - Export - Domestic Demand: The apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils were shown, as well as the production and export data of home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [145][148][150]. - Import - Export: The monthly import and export data of steel, rebar, and plates were presented [160][162][165].