KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2026-01-04 14:44Core Insights - The report highlights a potential decline in the scale of consumer goods trade-in programs, projecting a reduction to approximately 250 billion yuan in 2026, down from previous levels due to policy adjustments and a focus on quality and precision in implementation [6][7] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with the PMI for December 2025 rising to 50.1%, indicating a return to growth, driven by increased working days and effective policy measures [34][35] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the continuation of trade-in subsidies, with BYD surpassing Tesla to become the global leader in electric vehicle sales in 2025 [66] Macro Economic Analysis - The report discusses the marginal decline in the leverage effect of trade-in programs on retail sales, with the multiplier effect decreasing from 2.3 to approximately 1.9 [7] - It notes that the overall economic growth target for 2025 is around 5.0%, supported by early implementation of demand expansion policies [10][11] Industry Performance - The report identifies the top-performing sectors, including defense and military, media, real estate, non-ferrous metals, and social services, with respective gains of 2.129%, 1.535%, 1.131%, 1.086%, and 1.042% [3][4] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications, agriculture, electronics, and comprehensive services experienced declines, with telecommunications down by 1.345% [4] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a focus on technology and cyclical sectors, emphasizing the importance of structural opportunities in the market, particularly in commercial aerospace, robotics, and petrochemicals [13][14] - It recommends a diversified investment approach, highlighting sectors like military, chemicals, non-bank financials, and steel as favorable for investment [45][47] Company-Specific Insights - Neuralink is set to begin large-scale production of brain-machine interface devices in 2026, which could revolutionize human-robot collaboration [59][60] - BYD's dominance in the electric vehicle market is underscored by its sales figures, with 4.6 million units sold in 2025, marking a significant achievement in the automotive sector [66]