委内瑞拉局势如何影响油价

Group 1: U.S. Involvement in Venezuela - Trump has shown a Monroe Doctrine inclination, favoring ideologically aligned regimes in the Western Hemisphere, particularly against Maduro's government[4] - The best-case scenario for Trump is to establish a pro-U.S. regime in Venezuela, which could help lower oil prices ahead of elections[5] - U.S. intervention is likely to focus on controlling "exportable crude oil" through regulatory and transactional structures rather than direct asset takeover[16] Group 2: Venezuela's Oil Production Potential - Venezuela holds approximately 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, accounting for about 17% of the global total, but actual production has plummeted to around 1 million barrels per day, only about 1% of global output[6] - The country’s oil production capabilities are severely hampered by aging infrastructure and international sanctions, requiring an estimated $8 billion investment to restore production to 1990s levels[7] - Venezuela's refining capacity is significantly underutilized, with actual throughput around 300,000 barrels per day, just 20% of its nominal capacity of 1.46 million barrels per day[8] Group 3: Impact on Global Oil Prices - If the U.S. promotes a "U.S. company-controlled" increase in Venezuelan production, short-term oil prices may be supported by "risk premiums" and OPEC+ supply control rather than falling due to production increases[18] - OPEC+ has maintained a production cut of approximately 3.24 million barrels per day, indicating a clear intent to defend prices[18] - Even with potential production recovery in Venezuela, OPEC+ has room to adjust output to mitigate price declines, suggesting a gradual rather than rapid recovery in oil supply[18]