Group 1 - The report highlights the recent focus on bond market strategies following the implementation of new fund redemption regulations, which are better than market expectations [8][36] - Since the announcement of the consultation draft on September 5, 2025, bond funds have shown poor performance in certain bonds, with the 3-year government bond yield declining by 11 basis points and the 3-year national development bond yield remaining stable [5][36] - The report anticipates that medium to short-term government bonds will maintain low volatility due to easing liquidity and expectations of central bank purchases, with a potential for certain bonds to rebound [5][36] Group 2 - Long-term bond yields may have significant downward potential, influenced by central bank interest rate cut expectations and equity market performance [9][37] - The report suggests that the new redemption regulations primarily alleviate the yield spread issues between different bond types, providing some downward value for high-yield bonds, but their direct impact on long-term bond yields is limited [9][37] - Current expectations indicate that the 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.8% and 1.9%, with a strong value proposition if it rises above 1.9% [9][37] Group 3 - The bond selection strategy emphasizes focusing on bonds with high odds value, particularly in the 4-5 year range for government bonds and national development bonds [10][12] - Specific bonds such as 250420 and 240210 are highlighted for their potential value, while older bonds and 50-year government bonds are recommended for relative value after stabilization in the long bond market [12][11] - The report also identifies opportunities in floating rate bonds and short-term credit bonds, suggesting a focus on 2-3 year floating rate bonds based on the narrowing spread logic between national development and government bonds [12][10] Group 4 - The report discusses the current state of government bond futures, indicating that the main contract's internal rate of return remains high, with specific contracts recommended for both long positions and hedging opportunities [13] - The analysis of the futures market shows a strong bearish sentiment, particularly in the TF contract, while the TL contract has seen a recent recovery in bullish sentiment [13][20] - The report suggests that the current market conditions may provide opportunities for spread strategies, particularly in the short end of the yield curve [13][20]
基金销售新规落地后关注什么策略
Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-04 15:06