政府债周报（12/28）：一季度发行计划已披露1.6万亿-20260104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance of government bonds, specifically local government bonds, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and related statistics [2][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - 12/29 - 01/04: Local government bonds are forecasted to issue 260.0 billion yuan, including 145.0 billion yuan in new bonds (0.0 billion in new general bonds and 145.0 billion in new special bonds) and 115.0 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (85.0 billion in refinancing general bonds and 30.0 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - 12/22 - 12/28: Local government bonds actually issued 20.4 billion yuan, all of which were new bonds (0.0 billion in new general bonds and 20.4 billion in new special bonds), with 0.0 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][7]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/28, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds totaled 20,000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 2,996.00 billion yuan, and 115.00 billion yuan will be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch second - round are Jiangsu (2,511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1,288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1,227.00 billion yuan) [8]. - As of 12/28, the 2025 special new special bonds totaled 13,668.08 billion yuan, and 0.00 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in 2025 are Jiangsu (1,289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1,239.28 billion yuan), and Henan (759.60 billion yuan) [8]. 3. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure: Compares the actual issuance of local bonds with pre - issuance disclosures [14]. - Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison: Compares the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions, including new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [16][23]. 4. Local Bond Net Supply - 12/22 - 12/28: Local bond net supply was - 32 billion yuan; 12/29 - 01/04: Forecasted net supply is 174 billion yuan [18]. 5. New Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.81%, and that of new special bonds was 100% [28]. 6. Refinancing Bond Net Supply - As of 12/28, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities is shown in the relevant chart, with the statistical scope including issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [30][31]. 7. Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: As of 12/28, the statistics of special refinancing bonds in different rounds and regions are presented, with detailed statistical scope and round definitions [33][34][35]. - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: As of 12/28, the statistics of special new special bonds in different years and regions are provided, including 2023, 2024, and 2025, with the statistical scope including issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [36][37][38]. 8. Local Bond Investment and Trading - One - two - level Spread: Presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local bonds and the spread by region [40][41][42]. - New Special Bond Investment Direction: Shows the investment direction of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [43].