GF SECURITIES·2026-01-04 15:33Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, which includes subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles. The policy is expected to significantly boost the sales of mid-to-high-end passenger cars [6][9][18]. - The report maintains a judgment of "price increase and stable volume" for domestic passenger car demand in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the industry despite potential market fluctuations [18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2026 Vehicle Replacement Policy - The policy supports scrapping and replacing personal vehicles with subsidies of 12% (up to 20,000 CNY) for new energy vehicles and 10% (up to 15,000 CNY) for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [9][10]. - It also includes support for scrapping old commercial vehicles and promoting the electrification of city buses [9][10]. 2. Market Share Tracking in PHEV Segment - The report focuses on the performance of PHEV market shares, particularly for BYD and Geely, as they adjust their market strategies and configurations [11]. - The analysis indicates significant variance in market shares due to increased supply and competitive strategies [11]. 3. Recent Report Insights - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy aligns with expectations, and the report anticipates a rise in the proportion of mid-to-high-end passenger car sales due to the subsidy structure [18]. - The report reflects on the previous year's strategy of "emerging from deflation," which has proven to be correct, and emphasizes the importance of regulatory changes and strategic adjustments by leading companies [18]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending various companies across the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, and others for potential growth [19]. - Specific companies are categorized into "right-side" and "left-side" targets based on their operational performance and market positioning [19].