GF SECURITIES·2026-01-04 15:33Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the value of oil transportation is becoming prominent against the backdrop of the US-Venezuela conflict. Short-term impacts on oil trade flows are expected to be limited, but long-term prospects may lead to increased production from Venezuela as the country could potentially re-enter compliant markets [6]. - The report suggests that the core logic of Venezuelan oil exports will shift from evading sanctions to compliance, which may increase short-distance transportation demand as US refineries are designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude oil [6]. - The supply side of the oil tanker market remains constrained, with limited growth expected in the coming years due to a low proportion of new ship orders and an aging fleet. The report notes that as of January 2026, the total order backlog represents only 17.62% of the existing fleet, with VLCC orders at 17.19% [6]. - Investment recommendations include maintaining a bullish stance on leading oil transportation companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping Company and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, as their performance is expected to continue to rise amid increasing oil transportation rates [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the geopolitical context of the US-Venezuela conflict and its implications for oil transportation, emphasizing the potential for increased production and compliance in the Venezuelan oil market [6]. Supply Constraints - The report identifies several factors contributing to supply constraints in the oil tanker market, including a historically low percentage of new ship orders, an aging fleet, and regulatory pressures that may increase operational costs for older vessels [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the oil transportation sector, particularly for leading companies, due to anticipated increases in oil transportation rates driven by geopolitical tensions [6].