东方证券煤炭行业周报：国际局势再生扰动，关注其对全球能源的影响-20260104

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the market benchmark [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent decline in coal prices has halted, with thermal coal prices expected to rebound due to decreasing port inventories. Coking coal prices are also anticipated to remain strong in the short term due to seasonal replenishment [3][9]. - The coal sector has experienced a continuous pullback, leading to pessimistic market expectations regarding coal prices. However, the stabilization of prices may improve market sentiment and present investment opportunities [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of international events on global energy prices, particularly focusing on the situation in Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally [9]. - It notes that the coal supply has significantly contracted towards the end of the year, with thermal coal prices expected to rise as port inventories decrease [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices at ports have stopped declining, while coking coal prices are supported by seasonal demand despite weak replenishment efforts from downstream sectors [9][10]. - In December, port coal prices fell by 16.9%, and the coal sector index dropped by 4.1%. The current price-to-book ratio for the coal industry is at 1.42, indicating a historical median valuation [9][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a seasonal decline in coal mine operating rates and a return to normal temperature levels, which affects demand [30][32]. - Port inventories have shown significant reduction, with various ports reporting lower coal stocks compared to previous periods [43][44]. Shipping and Logistics - The report mentions that shipping volumes on the Daqin line are low, and the number of anchored vessels remains subdued, indicating logistical challenges in the coal supply chain [61][63].